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For several decades now, Bayesian inference techniques have been applied to theories of particle physics, cosmology and astrophysics to obtain the probability density functions of their free parameters. In this study, we review and compare…

高能物理 - 唯象学 · 物理学 2025-09-03 Joshua Albert , Csaba Balazs , Andrew Fowlie , Will Handley , Nicholas Hunt-Smith , Roberto Ruiz de Austri , Martin White

We introduce a new class of Monte Carlo based approximations of expectations of random variables such that their laws are only available via certain discretizations. Sampling from the discretized versions of these laws can typically…

统计计算 · 统计学 2017-10-17 Dan Crisan , Pierre Del Moral , Jeremie Houssineau , Ajay Jasra

We consider the application of multilevel Monte Carlo methods to elliptic PDEs with random coefficients. We focus on models of the random coefficient that lack uniform ellipticity and boundedness with respect to the random parameter, and…

数值分析 · 数学 2012-04-17 A. L. Teckentrup , R. Scheichl , M. B. Giles , E. Ullmann

The empirical measure of an interacting particle system is a purely atomic random probability measure. In the limit as the number of particles grows to infinity, we show for McKean-Vlasov systems with common noise that this measure becomes…

概率论 · 数学 2025-09-01 Robert Alexander Crowell

We design and analyse the performance of a multilevel ensemble Kalman filter method (MLEnKF) for filtering settings where the underlying state-space model is an infinite-dimensional spatio-temporal process. We consider underlying models…

数值分析 · 数学 2020-03-11 Alexey Chernov , Håkon Hoel , Kody J. H. Law , Fabio Nobile , Raul Tempone

In this paper, we study bounds of expected $L_2-$discrepancy to give mean square error of uniform integration approximation for functions in Sobolev space $\mathcal{H}^{\mathbf{1}}(K)$, where $\mathcal{H}$ is a reproducing Hilbert space…

数值分析 · 数学 2021-10-05 Jun Xian , Xiaoda Xu

This paper investigates Monte Carlo (MC) methods to estimate probabilities of rare events associated with solutions to the $d$-dimensional McKean-Vlasov stochastic differential equation (MV-SDE). MV-SDEs are usually approximated using a…

With the path integral approach, the thermal average in a multi-electronic-state quantum systems can be approximated by the ring polymer representation on an extended configuration space, where the additional degrees of freedom are…

数值分析 · 数学 2020-11-24 Xiaoyu Lei , Zhennan Zhou

This paper introduces a Monte Carlo method for maximum likelihood inference in the context of discretely observed diffusion processes. The method gives unbiased and a.s.\@ continuous estimators of the likelihood function for a family of…

统计理论 · 数学 2009-03-03 Alexandros Beskos , Omiros Papaspiliopoulos , Gareth Roberts

This manuscript presents a framework for using multilevel quadrature formulae to compute the solution of optimal control problems constrained by random partial differential equations. Our approach consists in solving a sequence of optimal…

数值分析 · 数学 2025-05-19 Fabio Nobile , Tommaso Vanzan

This article is a continuation of our first work \cite{chaudruraynal:frikha}. We here establish some new quantitative estimates for propagation of chaos of non-linear stochastic differential equations in the sense of McKean-Vlasov. We…

偏微分方程分析 · 数学 2021-08-26 Noufel Frikha , Paul-Eric Chaudru de Raynal

This study analyzes the nonasymptotic convergence behavior of the quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) method with applications to linear elliptic partial differential equations (PDEs) with lognormal coefficients. Building upon the error analysis…

数值分析 · 数学 2026-01-13 Yang Liu , Raúl Tempone

State-space models have been used in many applications, including econometrics, engineering, medical research, etc. The maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of the static parameter of general state-space models is not straightforward because…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-02-04 Yuxiong Gao , Wentao Li , Rong Chen

We develop a mean-field theory for large, non-exchangeable particle (agent) systems where the states and interaction weights co-evolve in a coupled system of SDEs. A first main result is the establishment of the propagation of…

概率论 · 数学 2025-12-30 Datong Zhou

We derive a framework to compute optimal controls for problems with states in the space of probability measures. Since many optimal control problems constrained by a system of ordinary differential equations (ODE) modelling interacting…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2020-09-23 Martin Burger , René Pinnau , Claudia Totzeck , Oliver Tse

This article reviews the application of advanced Monte Carlo techniques in the context of Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC). MLMC is a strategy employed to compute expectations which can be biased in some sense, for instance, by using the…

统计计算 · 统计学 2017-04-25 Ajay Jasra , Kody Law , Carina Suciu

We consider the computational efficiency of Monte Carlo (MC) and Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods applied to partial differential equations with random coefficients. These arise, for example, in groundwater flow modelling, where a…

数值分析 · 数学 2024-12-12 Anastasia Istratuca , Aretha Teckentrup

Complex scientific models where the likelihood cannot be evaluated present a challenge for statistical inference. Over the past two decades, a wide range of algorithms have been proposed for learning parameters in computationally feasible…

统计计算 · 统计学 2021-12-16 Aden Forrow , Ruth E. Baker

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms were originally designed for estimating intractable conditional expectations within state-space models, but are now routinely used to generate approximate samples in the context of general-purpose…

统计理论 · 数学 2020-05-11 Jonathan H. Huggins , Daniel M. Roy

We consider the outstanding problem of sampling from an unnormalized density that may be non-log-concave and multimodal. To enhance the performance of simple Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, techniques of annealing type have been…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-02-18 Wei Guo , Molei Tao , Yongxin Chen