经济学
When comparison units may also respond to treatment, panel comparisons reflect both the treatment effect and spillovers. If the interference pattern is unknown, observed outcomes alone do not separate the two. I characterize what can…
Many questions across the sciences take the same form: several coupled series are observed together, and the analyst wants to know not merely that they move together but which one moves first, and how strongly. This paper sets out a…
In organized crime, membership moves fastest, deterrence capacity moves more slowly, and division norms move slowest. We model this as a three-stage game: division norms fix how every possible coalition divides its proceeds; the authority…
I consider an AR($p$) process that is observed every $q$ periods, either as a snapshot (stock variable) or as a sum over the sampling interval (flow variable). Under fairly mild assumptions, I derive the identified set for general lag…
We consider the classical additive measurement-error model $X=Y+Z$, where the latent random variable $Y$ has unknown distribution $F_Y$ and the error $Z$ has a known distribution. We develop direct estimators for three functionals of $F_Y$:…
We solve a natural bimatrix game related to graphs. We consider a finite directed graph $G=(V,E),$ where the strategy set of Player I is the set of vertices $V$ and that of Player II is the set of edges $E.$ There are two sets of positive…
This paper studies imperfect competition in general equilibrium when households and firms choose price-contingent schedules. Market clearing selects the price generated by those schedules, and each agent accounts for how its own behavior…
The dispersion of self-reported life satisfaction has been proposed and used as a comprehensive measure of societal inequality. A negative cross-country association between mean life satisfaction and its standard deviation has been read as…
Factor-MIDAS regressions forecast a low-frequency target by extracting common factors from a large panel of high-frequency predictors via principal component analysis (PCA). While PCA mitigates the curse of dimensionality, it relies on…
We study a platform that prefers to sell the more profitable of two products. It designs an algorithm that determines the product the consumer encounters first, conditional on her best match. The algorithm simultaneously manipulates…
AI predicts; humans use its predictions to make decisions. These predictions are combined with human verification and analysis, queries to other statistical models, and so on. The economic value of an AI, therefore, depends on how it…
We study how organizations use frontier generative AI by linking ChatGPT Enterprise account records to usage, worker roles, task classifications, and public-company financial data through March 2026. These linked data enable a…
Outcomes are increasingly regressed on a calibrated probability vector for unobserved class membership, and that vector is often coarsened to a hard label first. Under a constant-coefficient structural mean and conditional calibration, the…
We study two observable queues with identical service rates, serving agents who arrive stochastically over time. Agents join the queue that minimizes their expected waiting time. Assuming one queue uses the ubiquitous…
We extend the concept of priority-neutral matching, introduced by Reny (2022) in the school choice context, to the roommate problem. We prove three main results. First, a blocking-neutral matching always exists in constrained roommate…
This study proposes that firms move along an "organizational technology ladder": adopting one technology transforms hiring and work processes and builds skills and organizational capital that change the cost of adopting subsequent…
A number of recent empirical papers rely on a collective model to analyze the portfolio choice of spouses, their heterogeneous risk preferences, and intra-household bargaining. I study applications of this model and highlight some important…
How should institutions compare group diversity, and which group should they select when they value diversity and merit? We take a target-based approach that evaluates the entire group composition without treating any type as intrinsically…
We study how differences in AI-generated financial recommendations are transmitted into individual portfolio choices. In an experiment with 400 employed adults enrolled in workplace defined contribution pension plans in South Korea,…
We propose a comprehensive framework for solving overlapping-generations (OLG) models in continuous time with both idiosyncratic and aggregate risk. Our general characterization of equilibrium through the master equation operates on the…