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Many modern spatio-temporal data sets, in sociology, epidemiology or seismology, for example, exhibit self-exciting characteristics, triggering and clustering behaviors both at the same time, that a suitable Hawkes space-time process can…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-06-18 Emilia Siviero , Guillaume Staerman , Stephan Clémençon , Thomas Moreau

In this paper, a framework on a discrete observation of (marked) point processes under the high-frequency observation is developed. Based on this framework, we first clarify the relation between random coefficient integer-valued…

统计理论 · 数学 2017-04-11 Daisuke Kurisu

Let $F$ be a distribution function on $\mathbb{R}$ with $F(0) = 0 $ and density $f$. Let $\tilde{F}$ be the distribution function of $X_1 - X_2$, $X_i\sim F,\, i=1,2,\text{ iid}$. We show that for a critical Hawkes process with displacement…

概率论 · 数学 2017-06-14 Matthias Kirchner

We establish the asymptotic validity of frequency-domain inference for stationary multivariate Hawkes processes under mild conditions, bridging the gap between theory and application. By developing upper-bounds on the reduced cumulant…

统计理论 · 数学 2026-04-14 Yifu Tang , Conor Kresin , Boris Baeumer , Ting Wang

In a previous paper, it has been shown that the mean-field limit of spatially extended Hawkes processes is characterized as the unique solution $u(t,x)$ of a neural field equation (NFE). The value $u(t,x)$ represents the membrane potential…

概率论 · 数学 2020-04-14 Julien Chevallier , Guilherme Ost

In the last decade Hawkes processes have received much attention as models for functional connectivity in neural spiking networks and other dynamical systems with a cascade behavior. In this paper we establish a renewal approach for…

概率论 · 数学 2019-06-11 Mads Bonde Raad

Existence and stability properties are studied for Hawkes process, i.e. point process $S$ that has long-memory and intensity $r(t)=\lambda \big(g_0(t)+ \sum_{\tau<t, \tau \in S} h(t-\tau) \big)$. The approach to Hawkes process presented in…

概率论 · 数学 2013-01-17 Dmytro Karabash

The marked Hawkes risk process is a compound point process for which the occurrence and amplitude of past events impact the future. Thanks to its autoregressive properties, it found applications in various fields such as neuosciences,…

概率论 · 数学 2024-09-11 Laure Coutin , Mahmoud Khabou

In this paper, we build a model for biological neural nets where the activity of the network is described by Hawkes processes having a variable length memory. The particularity of this paper is to deal with an infinite number of components.…

概率论 · 数学 2015-09-18 Pierre Hodara , Eva Löcherbach

The neural Hawkes process (Mei & Eisner, 2017) is a generative model of irregularly spaced sequences of discrete events. To handle complex domains with many event types, Mei et al. (2020a) further consider a setting in which each event in…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-05-09 Chenghao Yang , Hongyuan Mei , Jason Eisner

We present the first exact analysis of some of the temporal properties of multivariate self-excited Hawkes conditional Poisson processes, which constitute powerful representations of a large variety of systems with bursty events, for which…

统计力学 · 物理学 2014-08-26 A. Saichev , D. Sornette

Many events occur in the world. Some event types are stochastically excited or inhibited---in the sense of having their probabilities elevated or decreased---by patterns in the sequence of previous events. Discovering such patterns can help…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2017-11-22 Hongyuan Mei , Jason Eisner

Modelling and forecasting the occurrence of extreme events is especially difficult when the event process is nonstationary, with changes in both the rate at which extremes occur and the magnitude of the extremes when they occur. We approach…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-05-06 Gordon J. Ross , Dean Markwick

In this article, we fill a gap in the literature on Hawkes processes. In particular, we derive a CLT for a non linear compound marked Hawkes process. We also provide an upper bound on the convergence rate using the functional 1-Wasserstein…

概率论 · 数学 2026-01-27 Benjamin Massat

A Hawkes process on $\R$ is a point process whose intensity function at time $t$ is a functional of its past activity before time $t$. It is defined by its activation function $\Phi$ and its memory function $h$. In this paper, the Hawkes…

概率论 · 数学 2023-12-05 Philippe Robert , Gaëtan Vignoud

In this paper, we establish the asymptotic behavior of {\it supercritical} nearly unstable Hawkes processes with a power law kernel. We find that, the Hawkes process in our context admits a similar equation to that in \cite{MR3563196} for…

概率论 · 数学 2025-04-25 Liping Xu , An Zhang

In this work, several convergence results are established for nearly critical self-excited systems in which event arrivals are described by multivariate marked Hawkes point processes. Under some mild high-frequency assumptions, the rescaled…

概率论 · 数学 2024-01-31 Wei Xu

Events in spatiotemporal domains arise in numerous real-world applications, where uncovering event relationships and enabling accurate prediction are central challenges. Classical Poisson and Hawkes processes rely on restrictive parametric…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-03-26 Zhitong Xu , Qiwei Yuan , Yinghao Chen , Yan Sun , Bin Shen , Shandian Zhe

The Hawkes process is a simple point process, whose intensity function depends on the entire past history and is self-exciting and has the clustering property. The Hawkes process is in general non-Markovian. The linear Hawkes process has…

概率论 · 数学 2025-09-04 Behzad Mehrdad , Lingjiong Zhu

Hawkes processes are a particularly interesting class of stochastic process that have been applied in diverse areas, from earthquake modelling to financial analysis. They are point processes whose defining characteristic is that they…

概率论 · 数学 2015-07-13 Patrick J. Laub , Thomas Taimre , Philip K. Pollett