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相关论文: Spatiotemporal Hawkes processes with a graphon-ind…

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Hawkes processes are a self-exciting stochastic process used to describe phenomena whereby past events increase the probability of the occurrence of future events. This work presents a flexible approach for modelling a variant of these,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-08-08 Raiha Browning , Judith Rousseau , Kerrie Mengersen

We propose a simulation method for multidimensional Hawkes processes based on superposition theory of point processes. This formulation allows us to design efficient simulations for Hawkes processes with differing exponentially decaying…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-03-14 Kar Wai Lim , Young Lee , Leif Hanlen , Hongbiao Zhao

We develop a new family of marked point processes by focusing the characteristic properties of marked Hawkes processes exclusively to the space of marks, providing the freedom to specify a different model for the occurrence times. This is…

应用统计 · 统计学 2022-10-18 Santhosh Narayanan , Ioannis Kosmidis , Petros Dellaportas

This paper is devoted to establishing the full scaling limit theorems for multivariate Hawkes processes. Under some mild conditions on the exciting kernels, we develop a new way to prove that after a suitable time-spatial scaling, the…

概率论 · 数学 2024-12-20 Wei Xu

The dissipative XY model in two spatial dimensions belongs to a new universality class of quantum critical phenomena with the remarkable property of the decoupling of the critical fluctuations in space and time. We have shown earlier that…

强关联电子 · 物理学 2015-05-19 Vivek Aji , C. M. Varma

We introduce and show the existence of a Hawkes self-exciting point process with exponentially-decreasing kernel and where parameters are time-varying. The quantity of interest is defined as the integrated parameter…

统计金融 · 定量金融 2017-06-28 Simon Clinet , Yoann Potiron

We introduce, and formally establish, a variant of the Hawkes-fed birth-death process -- the delayed Hawkes birth-death process -- in which the conditional intensity does not increase at arrivals but at departures from the system. In a…

概率论 · 数学 2025-07-24 Justin Baars , Roger J. A. Laeven , Michel Mandjes

Multivariate Hawkes process provides a powerful framework for modeling temporal dependencies and event-driven interactions in complex systems. While existing methods primarily focus on uncovering causal structures among observed…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-03-03 Songyao Jin , Biwei Huang

We present a stability study of the class of multivariate self-excited Hawkes point processes, that can model natural and social systems, including earthquakes, epileptic seizures and the dynamics of neuron assemblies, bursts of exchanges…

统计力学 · 物理学 2015-05-27 A. Saichev , D. Sornette

The Hawkes process and its extensions effectively model self-excitatory phenomena including earthquakes, viral pandemics, financial transactions, neural spike trains and the spread of memes through social networks. The usefulness of these…

应用统计 · 统计学 2020-05-21 Andrew J. Holbrook , Charles E. Loeffler , Seth R. Flaxman , Marc A. Suchard

Temporal networks allow representing connections between objects while incorporating the temporal dimension. While static network models can capture unchanging topological regularities, they often fail to model the effects associated with…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-07-11 Mathilde Perez , Raphaël Romero , Bo Kang , Tijl De Bie , Jefrey Lijffijt , Charlotte Laclau

A multivariate Hawkes process enables self- and cross-excitations through a triggering matrix that behaves like an asymmetrical covariance structure, characterizing pairwise interactions between the event types. Full-rank estimation of all…

机器学习 · 统计学 2022-04-26 Myrl G. Marmarelis , Greg Ver Steeg , Aram Galstyan

Multivariate Hawkes processes are commonly used to model streaming networked event data in a wide variety of applications. However, it remains a challenge to extract reliable inference from complex datasets with uncertainty quantification.…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-10-29 Haoyun Wang , Liyan Xie , Alex Cuozzo , Simon Mak , Yao Xie

We generalize multivariate Hawkes processes mainly by including a dependence with respect to the age of the process, i.e. the delay since the last point. Within this class, we investigate the limit behaviour, when n goes to infinity, of a…

概率论 · 数学 2017-03-16 Julien Chevallier

We study the continuous time limit of a self-exciting negative binomial process and discuss the critical properties of its intensity distribution. In this limit, the process transforms into a marked Hawkes process. The probability mass…

概率论 · 数学 2023-05-24 Kotaro Sakuraba , Wataru Kurebayashi , Masato Hisakado , Shintaro Mori

Hawkes Processes are a type of point process which models self-excitement among time events. It has been used in a myriad of applications, ranging from finance and earthquakes to crime rates and social network activity analysis.Recently, a…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-01-05 Rafael Lima

Hawkes process is a class of simple point processes that is self-exciting and has clustering effect. The intensity of this point process depends on its entire past history. It has wide applications in finance, insurance, neuroscience,…

概率论 · 数学 2018-03-28 Xuefeng Gao , Lingjiong Zhu

The Hawkes process is a popular point process model for event sequences that exhibit temporal clustering. The intensity process of a Hawkes process consists of two components, the baseline intensity and the accumulated excitation effect due…

统计理论 · 数学 2024-08-20 Tsz-Kit Jeffrey Kwan , Feng Chen , William Dunsmuir

The form factor program for the regularized space-time S-matrix in planar maximally supersymmetric gauge theory, known as the pentagon operator product expansion, is formulated in terms of flux-tube excitations propagating on a dual…

高能物理 - 理论 · 物理学 2018-03-14 A. V. Belitsky

Multivariate Hawkes Processes (MHPs) are an important class of temporal point processes that have enabled key advances in understanding and predicting social information systems. However, due to their complex modeling of temporal…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-03-02 Maximilian Nickel , Matthew Le