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The Hawkes process, a self-exciting point process, has a wide range of applications in modeling earthquakes, social networks and stock markets. The established estimation process requires that researchers have access to the exact time…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-11-15 Lingxiao Zhou , Georgia Papadogeorgou

Hawkes process is a simple point process that is self-exciting and has clustering effect. The intensity of this point process depends on its entire past history. It has wide applications in finance, neuroscience, social networks,…

概率论 · 数学 2018-10-02 Xuefeng Gao , Lingjiong Zhu

Self-exciting processes of Hawkes type have been used to model various phenomena including earthquakes, neural activities, and views of online videos. Studies of temporal networks have revealed that sequences of social interevent times for…

物理与社会 · 物理学 2015-06-05 Naoki Masuda , Taro Takaguchi , Nobuo Sato , Kazuo Yano

Point processes are widely used statistical models for continuous-time discrete event data, such as medical records, crime reports, and social network interactions, to capture the influence of historical events on future occurrences. In…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-01-13 Xiuyuan Cheng , Tingnan Gong , Yao Xie

Asynchronous events on the continuous time domain, e.g., social media actions and stock transactions, occur frequently in the world. The ability to recognize occurrence patterns of event sequences is crucial to predict which typeof events…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-02-17 Qiang Zhang , Aldo Lipani , Omer Kirnap , Emine Yilmaz

The Hawkes process is a class of point processes whose future depends on their own history. Previous theoretical work on the Hawkes process is limited to a special case in which a past event can only increase the occurrence of future…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-06-21 Shizhe Chen , Ali Shojaie , Eric Shea-Brown , Daniela Witten

Networks and temporal point processes serve as fundamental building blocks for modeling complex dynamic relational data in various domains. We propose the latent space Hawkes (LSH) model, a novel generative model for continuous-time…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-07-08 Zhipeng Huang , Hadeel Soliman , Subhadeep Paul , Kevin S. Xu

The Hawks process is a point process with a self-exciting property. It has been used to model earthquakes, social media events, infections, etc., and is getting a lot of attention. However, as a real problem, there are often situations…

统计理论 · 数学 2021-07-30 Masatoshi Goda

A field theoretical framework is developed for the Hawkes self-excited point process with arbitrary memory kernels by embedding the original non-Markovian one-dimensional dynamics onto a Markovian infinite-dimensional one. The corresponding…

统计力学 · 物理学 2020-09-23 Kiyoshi Kanazawa , Didier Sornette

We consider a population of Hawkes processes modeling the activity of $N$ interacting neurons. The neurons are regularly positioned on the segment $[0,1]$, and the connectivity between neurons is given by a random possibly diluted and…

概率论 · 数学 2022-07-29 Zoé Agathe-Nerine

Locally stationary Hawkes processes have been introduced in order to generalise classical Hawkes processes away from stationarity by allowing for a time-varying second-order structure. This class of self-exciting point processes has…

统计理论 · 数学 2018-01-31 François Roueff , Rainer Von Sachs

Foundational marked temporal point process (MTPP) models, such as the Hawkes process, often use inexpressive model families in order to offer interpretable parameterizations of event data. On the other hand, neural MTPPs models forego this…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-11-04 Alex Boyd , Andrew Warrington , Taha Kass-Hout , Parminder Bhatia , Danica Xiao

Hawkes process is a class of simple point processes with self-exciting and clustering properties. Hawkes process has been widely applied in finance, neuroscience, social networks, criminology, seismology, and many other fields. In this…

概率论 · 数学 2020-11-23 Fuqing Gao , Lingjiong Zhu

The Hawkes process has become a standard method for modeling self-exciting event sequences with different event types. A recent work has generalized the Hawkes process to a neurally self-modulating multivariate point process, which enables…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-06-16 Zhen Han , Yunpu Ma , Yuyi Wang , Stephan Günnemann , Volker Tresp

Across a wide variety of applications, the self-exciting Hawkes process has been used to model phenomena in which the history of events influences future occurrences. However, there may be many situations in which the past events only…

概率论 · 数学 2021-01-12 Andrew Daw , Jamol Pender

In this paper, we discuss integer-valued autoregressive time series (INAR), Hawkes point processes, and their interrelationship. Besides presenting structural analogies, we derive a convergence theorem. More specifically, we generalize the…

概率论 · 数学 2022-08-18 Matthias Kirchner

The Hawkes self-excited point process provides an efficient representation of the bursty intermittent dynamics of many physical, biological, geological and economic systems. By expressing the probability for the next event per unit time…

统计力学 · 物理学 2020-09-23 Kiyoshi Kanazawa , Didier Sornette

We prove a law of large numbers and functional central limit theorem for a class of multivariate Hawkes processes with time-dependent reproduction rate. We address the difficulties induced by the use of non-convolutive Volterra processes by…

概率论 · 数学 2025-01-30 Thomas Deschatre , Pierre Gruet , Antoine Lotz

We consider the problem of learning the network of mutual excitations (i.e., the dependency graph) in a non-stationary, multivariate Hawkes process. We consider a general setting where baseline rates at each node are time-varying and delay…

统计理论 · 数学 2026-01-21 Elchanan Mossel , Anirudh Sridhar

We propose an extension to Hawkes processes by treating the levels of self-excitation as a stochastic differential equation. Our new point process allows better approximation in application domains where events and intensities accelerate…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2016-09-23 Young Lee , Kar Wai Lim , Cheng Soon Ong