概率论

We establish a general version of the strong KPZ universality conjecture near the axis for random walks in a random environment (RWRE) on $\mathbb{Z}^2$. For an i.i.d. elliptic random environment, we consider the quenched large deviations…

The Ewens-Pitman model defines a distribution on random partitions of $\{1,\ldots,n\}$, with parameters $\alpha \in [0,1)$ and $\theta > -\alpha$; the case $\alpha=0$ reduces to the classical Ewens model from population genetics. We…

We develop a self contained stochastic perturbation theory for discrete generation and multivariate Ensemble Kalman filters. Unlike their continuous-time counterparts, discrete EnKF algorithms are defined through a two steps prediction…

We consider individuals of two species distributed over m patches, each with a hosting capacity $d_i N$ , where $d_i \in (0, 1]$. We assume that all the patches are linked by the dispersal of individuals. This work examines how the…

We develop a novel stability theory for Sinkhorn semigroups based on Lyapunov techniques and quantitative contraction coefficients, and establish exponential convergence of Sinkhorn iterations on weighted Banach spaces. This…

Let $\{Z_n\}_{n\geq 0 }$ be a critical $d$-dimensional branching random walk started from a Poisson random measure whose intensity measure is the Lebesgue measure on $\mathbb{R}^d$. Denote by…

We consider a sequence of finite irreducible Markov chains with exponentially small transition rates: the transition graph is a fixed, finite, strongly connected directed graph; the transition rates decay exponentially on a paramenter N…

We study positivity and probabilistic properties arising from the Young--Fibonacci lattice $\mathbb{YF}$, a 1-differential poset on binary (Fibonacci) words of 1's and 2's, graded by digit sum. Building on Okada's theory of clone Schur…

The Elo rating system is a popular and widely adopted method for measuring the relative skill levels of players or teams in various sports and competitions. It assigns players numerical ratings and dynamically updates them based on game…

Super-tree random measures (STRMs) were introduced by Allouba, Durrett, Hawkes and Perkins as a simple stochastic model which emulates a superprocess at a fixed time. A STRM $\nu$ arises as the a.s. limit of a sequence of empirical measures…

We consider controlling the paths of a spectrally negative L\'evy process by two means: the subtraction of `taxes' when the process is at an all-time maximum, and the addition of `bailouts' which keep the value of the process above zero. We…

We prove two-sided bounds on the expected values of several geometric functionals of the convex hull of Brownian motion in $\mathbb{R}^n$ and their inverse processes. This extends some recent results of McRedmond and Xu (2017),…

We establish connections between the absorption probabilities of a class of birth-death processes with killing, and the stationary tail of a related class of birth-death processes with catastrophes. The major ingredients of the proofs are a…

Let $X$ be the constrained random walk on $\mathbb{Z}_+^d$ $d >2$, having increments $e_1$, $-e_i+e_{i+1}$ $i=1,2,3,...,d-1$ and $-e_d$ with probabilities $\lambda$, $\mu_1$, $\mu_2$,...,$\mu_d$, where $\{e_1,e_2,..,e_d\}$ are the standard…

We provide a Poisson approximation result for dependent thinnings of Gibbs point processes as well as qualitative and quantitative central limit theorems for geometric functionals of Gibbs point processes in increasing observation windows.…

We consider an anisotropic $d$-dimensional Swift-Hohenberg model $ \mathcal{O}(\varepsilon^2) $-close to the first instability, where $ 0 < \varepsilon \ll 1 $ is a small perturbation parameter. This model for pattern formation is perturbed…

We investigate the conditions under which the space of bounded harmonic functions of a probability measure $\mu$ on a group $G$ is contained in that of another measure $\theta$. We establish that asymptotic commutativity, defined by the…

We establish a functional large deviation principle for fully connected multi-layer perceptrons with i.i.d. Gaussian weights (LeCun initialization) and general Lipschitz activation functions, including therefore the popular case of ReLU.…

In this article, we fill a gap in the literature on Hawkes processes. In particular, we derive a CLT for a non linear compound marked Hawkes process. We also provide an upper bound on the convergence rate using the functional 1-Wasserstein…

For $d \geq 2$ and i.i.d. $d$-dimensional observations $\mathbf{X}^{(1)}, \mathbf{X}^{(2)}, \ldots$ with independent Exponential$(1)$ coordinates, let $\varphi_n$ denote the minimum $\ell^1$-norm among the maxima of $\{\mathbf{X}^{(1)},…