相关论文: A Delayed Yule Process
Several groups have recently modeled evolutionary transitions from an ancestral allele to a beneficial allele separated by one or more intervening mutants. The beneficial allele can become fixed if a succession of intermediate mutants are…
In many contexts such as queuing theory, spatial statistics, geostatistics and meteorology, data are observed at irregular spatial positions. One model of this situation involves considering the observation points as generated by a Poisson…
It has been noticed that when the waiting time distribution exhibits a transition from an intermediate time power law decay to a long-time exponential decay in the continuous time random walk model, a transition from anomalous diffusion to…
Fractional generalizations of the Poisson process and branching Furry process are considered. The link between characteristics of the processes, fractional differential equations and Levy stable densities are discussed and used for…
We establish the limiting distribution of $\frac{{(\log \log x)}^{1/4}}{\sqrt{x}} \sum_{n\le x}\alpha(n)$ where $\alpha$ is a Steinhaus random multiplicative function, answering a question of Harper. The distributional convergence is proved…
In this paper, we resolve a longstanding open statistical problem. The problem is to mathematically confirm Yule's 1926 empirical finding of "nonsense correlation" (\cite{Yule}). We do so by analytically determining the second moment of the…
We investigate statistical inference across time scales. We take as toy model the estimation of the intensity of a discretely observed compound Poisson process with symmetric Bernoulli jumps. We have data at different time scales:…
We suggest a new hardcore Poisson-type distribution for Young diagrams with the row lengths from some finite list. A discrete variant of the time-ordered Mat\'{e}rn II process in 1D is employed. This approach is related to that based on the…
We construct a class of nonnegative martingale processes that oscillate indefinitely with high probability. For these processes, we state a uniform rate of the number of oscillations and show that this rate is asymptotically close to the…
The fractional birth and the fractional death processes are more desirable in practice than their classical counterparts as they naturally provide greater flexibility in modeling growing and decreasing systems. In this paper, we propose…
Multitudinous probabilistic and combinatorial objects are associated with generating functions satisfying a composition scheme $F(z)=G(H(z))$. The analysis becomes challenging when this scheme is critical (i.e., $G$ and $H$ are…
We develop a class of exponential bounds for the probability that a martingale sequence crosses a time-dependent linear threshold. Our key insight is that it is both natural and fruitful to formulate exponential concentration inequalities…
We consider the passage time problem for L\'evy processes, emphasising heavy tailed cases. Results are obtained under quite mild assumptions, namely, drift to $-\infty$ a.s. of the process, possibly at a linear rate (the finite mean case),…
The dynamics of a population exhibiting exponential growth can be modelled as a birth-death process, which naturally captures the stochastic variation in population size over time. In this article, we consider a supercritical birth-death…
It is well known that, under broad assumptions, the time-scaled point process of exceedances of a high level by a stationary sequence converges to a compound Poisson process as the level grows. The purpose of this note is to demonstrate…
We study random spatial permutations on Z^3 where each jump x -> \pi(x) is penalized by a factor exp(-T ||x-\pi(x)||^2). The system is known to exhibit a phase transition for low enough T where macroscopic cycles appear. We observe that the…
We construct a mutually catalytic branching process on a countable site space with infinite "branching rate". The finite rate mutually catalytic model, in which the rate of branching of one population at a site is proportional to the mass…
The extremal process of a branching random walk is the point measure recording the position of particles alive at time $n$, shifted around the expected position of the minimal position. Madaule proved that this point measure converges, as…
We propose a stochastic process driven by memory effect with novel distributions including both exponential and leptokurtic heavy-tailed distributions. A class of distribution is analytically derived from the continuum limit of the discrete…
The estimation of parameters in the frequency spectrum of a seasonally persistent stationary stochastic process is addressed. For seasonal persistence associated with a pole in the spectrum located away from frequency zero, a new…