相关论文: Limiting distributions for explosive PAR(1) time s…

This article develops the asymptotic distribution of the least squares estimator of the model parameters in periodicvector autoregressive time series models (hereafter PVAR) with uncorrelated but dependent innovations. When theinnovations…

In this paper we study the limiting distributions of the least-squares estimators for the non-stationary first-order threshold autoregressive (TAR(1)) model. It is proved that the limiting behaviors of the TAR(1) process are very different…

We prove mixing convergence of the least squares estimator of autoregressive parameters for supercritical autoregressive processes of order 2 with Gaussian innovations having real characteristic roots with different absolute values. We use…

A general asymptotic theory is given for the panel data AR(1) model with time series independent in different cross sections. The theory covers the cases of stationary process, nearly non-stationary process, unit root process, mildly…

Real count data time series often show the phenomenon of the underdispersion and overdispersion. In this paper, we develop two extensions of the first-order integer-valued autoregressive process with Poisson innovations, based on binomial…

Periodic autoregressive (PAR) time series with finite variance is considered as one of the most common models of second-order cyclostationary processes. However, in the real applications, the signals with periodic characteristics may be…

Strictly stationary INAR(1) ("integer-valued autoregressive processes of order 1") with Poisson innovations are "interlaced rho-mixing".

We consider high-dimensional distribution estimation through autoregressive networks. By combining the concepts of sparsity, mixtures and parameter sharing we obtain a simple model which is fast to train and which achieves state-of-the-art…

This paper addresses short term forecast of ultra short AR(1) sequences (4 to 6 terms only) with a single structural break at an unknown time and of unknown sign and magnitude. As prediction of autoregressive processes requires estimated…

This paper considers nonparametric estimation and inference in first-order autoregressive (AR(1)) models with deterministically time-varying parameters. A key feature of the proposed approach is to allow for time-varying stationarity in…

A nearly unstable sequence of stationary spatial autoregressive processes is investigated, when the sum of the absolute values of the autoregressive coefficients tends to one. It is shown that after an appropriate norming the least squares…

Consider the random quadratic form $T_n=\sum_{1 \leq u < v \leq n} a_{uv} X_u X_v$, where $((a_{uv}))_{1 \leq u, v \leq n}$ is a $\{0, 1\}$-valued symmetric matrix with zeros on the diagonal, and $X_1,$ $X_2, \ldots, X_n$ are i.i.d.…

In comparative studies, such as in causal inference and clinical trials, balancing important covariates is often one of the most important concerns for both efficient and credible comparison. However, chance imbalance still exists in many…

In this paper, we present a fractional decomposition of the probability generating function of the innovation process of the first-order non-negative integer-valued autoregressive [INAR(1)] process to obtain the corresponding probability…

The paper examines the problem of representing the dynamics of low order autoregressive (AR) models with time varying (TV) coefficients. The existing literature computes the forecasts of the series from a recursion relation. Instead, we…

The time series with periodic behavior, such as the periodic autoregressive (PAR) models belonging to the class of the periodically correlated processes, are present in various real applications. In the literature, such processes were…

An inhomogeneous first--order integer--valued autoregressive (INAR(1)) process is investigated, where the autoregressive type coefficient slowly converges to one. It is shown that the process converges weakly to a Poisson or a compound…

In the autoregressive process of first order AR(1), a homogeneous correlated time series $u_t$ is recursively constructed as $u_t = q\; u_{t-1} + \sigma \;\epsilon_t$, using random Gaussian deviates $\epsilon_t$ and fixed values for the…

In this paper, we derive the limit distribution of the least squares estimator for an AR(1) model with a non-zero intercept and a possible infinite variance. It turns out that the estimator has a quite different limit for the cases of…

The distribution of the "mixing time" or the "time to stationarity" in a discrete time irreducible Markov chain, starting in state i, can be defined as the number of trials to reach a state sampled from the stationary distribution of the…