相关论文: Uncertain growth and the value of the future

High future discounting rates favor inaction on present expending while lower rates advise for a more immediate political action. A possible approach to this key issue in global economy is to take historical time series for nominal interest…

We present a thorough empirical study on real interest rates by also including risk aversion through the introduction of the market price of risk. With the view of complex systems science and its multidisciplinary approach, we use the…

In the ongoing debate over discount rates and climate change, William Nordhaus has championed a higher discount rate to account for risk. Nicholas Stern has championed a lower rate. Here we prove that in the case of a stream of future…

People often face trade-offs between costs and benefits occurring at various points in time. The predominant discounting approach is to use the exponential form. Central to this approach is the discount rate, a unique parameter that…

We consider an individual or household endowed with an initial capital and an income, modeled as a deterministic process with a continuous drift rate. At first, we model the discounting rate as the price of a zero-coupon bond at zero under…

An important question in economics is how people choose between different payments in the future. The classical normative model predicts that a decision maker discounts a later payment relative to an earlier one by an exponential function…

We consider an individual or household endowed with an initial capital and an income, modeled as a linear function of time. Assuming that the discount rate evolves as an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, we target to find an unrestricted…

The well-known theorem of Dybvig, Ingersoll and Ross shows that the long zero-coupon rate can never fall. This result, which, although undoubtedly correct, has been regarded by many as surprising, stems from the implicit assumption that the…

In this study we consider the pricing of energy derivatives when the evolution of spot prices is modeled with a normal tempered stable driven Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Such processes are the generalization of normal inverse Gaussian…

In this work, we propose a model to quantify the impact of the climate transition on a property in housing market. We begin by noting that property is an asset in an economy. That economy is organized in sectors, driven by its productivity…

We prove an analogue of Weitzman's (1998) famous result that an exponential discounter who is uncertain of the appropriate exponential discount rate should discount the far-distant future using the lowest (i.e., most patient) of the…

This paper examines the empirical failure of uncovered interest parity (UIP) and proposes a structural explanation based on a mean-reverting risk premium. We define a realized premium as the deviation between observed exchange rate returns…

In this paper, we consider a stochastic asset price model where the trend is an unobservable Ornstein Uhlenbeck process. We first review some classical results from Kalman filtering. Expectedly, the choice of the parameters is crucial to…

A new multi-factor short rate model is presented which is bounded from below by a real-valued function of time. The mean-reverting short rate process is modeled by a sum of pure-jump Ornstein--Uhlenbeck processes such that the related bond…

In this survey paper we discuss recent advances on short interest rate models which can be formulated in terms of a stochastic differential equation for the instantaneous interest rate (also called short rate) or a system of such equations…

The use of an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process is ubiquitous in business, economics and finance to capture various price processes and evolution of economic indicators exhibiting mean-reverting properties. When structural changes happen,…

This paper studies the problem of trading futures with transaction costs when the underlying spot price is mean-reverting. Specifically, we model the spot dynamics by the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU), Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR), or exponential…

This paper develops a new stochastic volatility model for the temperature that is a natural extension of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model proposed by Benth and Benth (2007). This model allows to be more conservative regarding extreme events…

We propose a new model for the joint evolution of the European inflation rate, the European Central Bank official interest rate and the short-term interest rate, in a stochastic, continuous time setting. We derive the valuation equation for…

We investigate a dividend maximization problem under stochastic interest rates with Ornstein-Uhlenbeck dynamics. This setup also takes negative rates into account. First a deterministic time is considered, where an explicit separating curve…