相关论文: Unexpected volatility and intraday serial correlat…

We study the relation between serial correlation of financial returns and volatility at intraday level for the S&P500 stock index. At daily and weekly level, serial correlation and volatility are known to be negatively correlated (LeBaron…

We simulate a series of daily returns from intraday price movements initiated by microstructure elements. Significant evidence is found that daily returns and daily return volatility exhibit first order autocorrelation, but trading volume…

We point out a stunning time asymmetry in the short time cross correlations between intra-day and overnight volatilities (absolute values of log-returns of stock prices). While overnight volatility is significantly (and positively)…

What is the dominating mechanism of the price dynamics in financial systems is of great interest to scientists. The problem whether and how volatilities affect the price movement draws much attention. Although many efforts have been made,…

In February 2018, the VIX index has seen its largest ever increase and has lead to significant losses for some major volatility related products. Despite many efforts, the precise underlying reasons are yet to be discovered. We study the…

Inspired by the recent literature on aggregation theory, we aim at relating the long range correlation of the stocks return volatility to the heterogeneity of the investors' expectations about the level of the future volatility. Based on a…

We study the interaction between returns and order flow imbalances in the S&P 500 E-mini futures market using a structural VAR model identified through heteroskedasticity. The model is estimated at one-second frequency for each 15-minute…

Financial time series exhibit two different type of non linear correlations: (i) volatility autocorrelations that have a very long range memory, on the order of years, and (ii) asymmetric return-volatility (or `leverage') correlations that…

Time-varying volatility is an inherent feature of most economic time-series, which causes standard correlation estimators to be inconsistent. The quadrant correlation estimator is consistent but very inefficient. We propose a novel…

We investigate quantitatively the so-called leverage effect, which corresponds to a negative correlation between past returns and future volatility. For individual stocks, this correlation is moderate and decays exponentially over 50 days,…

The gain-loss asymmetry, observed in the inverse statistics of stock indices is present for logarithmic return levels that are over $2\%$, and it is the result of the non-Pearson type auto-correlations in the index. These non-Pearson type…

The leverage effect-- the correlation between an asset's return and its volatility-- has played a key role in forecasting and understanding volatility and risk. While it is a long standing consensus that leverage effects exist and improve…

Standard methods and theories in finance can be ill-equipped to capture highly non-linear interactions in financial prediction problems based on large-scale datasets, with deep learning offering a way to gain insights into correlations in…

The association between log-price increments of exchange-traded equities, as measured by their spot correlation estimated from high-frequency data, exhibits a pronounced upward-sloping and almost piecewise linear relationship at the…

We develop a novel observation-driven model for high-frequency prices. We account for irregularly spaced observations, simultaneous transactions, discreteness of prices, and market microstructure noise. The relation between trade durations…

The composition of natural liquidity has been changing over time. An analysis of intraday volumes for the S&P500 constituent stocks illustrates that (i) volume surprises, i.e., deviations from their respective forecasts, are correlated…

We decompose, within an ARCH framework, the daily volatility of stocks into overnight and intra-day contributions. We find, as perhaps expected, that the overnight and intra-day returns behave completely differently. For example, while past…

This paper discusses a novel explanation for asymmetric volatility based on the anchoring behavioral pattern. Anchoring as a heuristic bias causes investors focusing on recent price changes and price levels, which two lead to a belief in…

We investigate the joint dynamics of spot and implied volatility from an empirical perspective. We focus on the equity market with the SPX Index our underlying of choice. Using only observable quantities, we extract the instantaneous…

In this article we consider the volatility inference in the presence of both market microstructure noise and endogenous time. Estimators of the integrated volatility in such a setting are proposed, and their asymptotic properties are…