相关论文: Unexpected volatility and intraday serial correlat…
An extensive empirical literature documents a generally negative correlation, named the "leverage effect," between asset returns and changes of volatility. It is more challenging to establish such a return-volatility relationship for jumps…
We show Bitcoin implied volatility on a 5 minute time horizon is modestly predictable from price, volatility momentum and alternative data including sentiment and engagement. Lagged Bitcoin index price and volatility movements contribute to…
We establish several new stylised facts concerning the intra-day seasonalities of stock dynamics. Beyond the well known U-shaped pattern of the volatility, we find that the average correlation between stocks increases throughout the day,…
We explore the effect of past market movements on the instantaneous correlations between assets within the futures market. Quantifying this effect is of interest to estimate and manage the risk associated to portfolios of futures in a…
We use the statistical properties of Shannon entropy estimator and Kullback-Leibler divergence to study the predictability of ultra-high frequency financial data. We develop a statistical test for the predictability of a sequence based on…
Pearson correlation and mutual information based complex networks of the day-to-day returns of US S&P500 stocks between 1985 and 2015 have been constructed in order to investigate the mutual dependencies of the stocks and their nature. We…
We study the volatility of the MIB30-stock-index high-frequency data from November 28, 1994 through September 15, 1995. Our aim is to empirically characterize the volatility random walk in the framework of continuous-time finance. To this…
We investigate serial correlation, periodic, aperiodic and scaling behaviour of eigenmodes, i.e. daily price fluctuation time-series derived from eigenvectors, of correlation matrices of shares listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange…
In financial markets, low prices are generally associated with high volatilities and vice-versa, this well known stylized fact usually being referred to as leverage effect. We propose a local volatility model, given by a stochastic…
Keeping a basic tenet of economic theory, rational expectations, we model the nonlinear positive feedback between agents in the stock market as an interplay between nonlinearity and multiplicative noise. The derived hyperbolic stochastic…
This paper investigates the effects of the launch of Bitcoin futures on the intraday volatility of Bitcoin. Based on one-minute price data collected from four cryptocurrency exchanges, we first examine the change in realized volatility…
Recent literature seek to forecast implied volatility derived from equity, index, foreign exchange, and interest rate options using latent factor and parametric frameworks. Motivated by increased public attention borne out of the…
Econophysics and econometrics agree that there is a correlation between volume and volatility in a time series. Using empirical data and their distributions, we further investigate this correlation and discover new ways that volatility and…
Financial time series exhibit a number of interesting properties that are difficult to explain with simple models. These properties include fat-tails in the distribution of price fluctuations (or returns) that are slowly removed at longer…
The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index, VIX, is calculated based on prices of out-of-the-money put and call options on the S&P 500 index (SPX). Sometimes called the "investor fear gauge," the VIX is a measure of the…
Motivated by the literature on investment flows and optimal trading, we examine intraday predictability in the cross-section of stock returns. We find a striking pattern of return continuation at half-hour intervals that are exact multiples…
We discovered that past changes in the market correlation structure are significantly related with future changes in the market volatility. By using correlation-based information filtering networks we device a new tool for forecasting the…
In this study we examine the evolution of price, volume, and the bid-ask spread after extreme 15 minute intraday price changes on the NYSE and the NASDAQ. We find that due to strong behavioral trading there is an overreaction. Furthermore…
Working on different aspects of algorithmic trading we empirically discovered a new market invariant. It links together the volatility of the instrument with its traded volume, the average spread and the volume in the order book. The…
We propose model-free (nonparametric) estimators of the volatility of volatility and leverage effect using high-frequency observations of short-dated options. At each point in time, we integrate available options into estimates of the…