相关论文: A data-driven econo-financial stress-testing frame…
Realistic credit risk assessment, the estimation of losses from counterparty's failure, is central for the financial stability. Credit risk models focus on the financial conditions of borrowers and only marginally consider other risks from…
Systemic liquidity risk, defined by the IMF as "the risk of simultaneous liquidity difficulties at multiple financial institutions", is a key topic in macroprudential policy and financial stress analysis. Specialized models to simulate…
This paper introduces a novel framework to study default dependence and systemic risk in a financial network that evolves over time. We analyse several indicators of risk, and develop a new latent space model to assess the health of key…
As impressively shown by the financial crisis in 2007/08, contagion effects in financial networks harbor a great threat for the stability of the entire system. Without sufficient capital requirements for banks and other financial…
The latest financial crisis has painfully revealed the dangers arising from a globally interconnected financial system. Conventional approaches based on the notion of the existence of equilibrium and those which rely on statistical…
The 2008 financial crisis illustrated the need for a thorough, functional understanding of systemic risk in strongly interconnected financial structures. Dynamic processes on complex networks being intrinsically difficult, most recent…
This work proposes an augmented variant of DebtRank with uncertainty intervals as a method to investigate and assess systemic risk in financial networks, in a context of incomplete data. The algorithm is tested against a default contagion…
The interconnectedness of financial institutions affects instability and credit crises. To quantify systemic risk we introduce here the PD model, a dynamic model that combines credit risk techniques with a contagion mechanism on the network…
The aim of this paper is to quantify and manage systemic risk caused by default contagion in the interbank market. We model the market as a random directed network, where the vertices represent financial institutions and the weighted edges…
The importance of adequately modeling credit risk has once again been highlighted in the recent financial crisis. Defaults tend to cluster around times of economic stress due to poor macro-economic conditions, {\em but also} by directly…
Assessing the resilience of the economy requires accounting for its intrinsic multi-layer nature, by assessing for instance how disruptions at the firm level spread through the production network and propagate to the banking sector. Methods…
One of the most defining features of the global financial network is its inherent complex and intertwined structure. From the perspective of systemic risk it is important to understand the influence of this network structure on default…
Banking system crises are complex events that in a short span of time can inflict extensive damage to banks themselves and to the external economy. The crisis literature has so far identified a number of distinct effects or channels that…
National economies rest on networks of millions of customer-supplier relations. Some companies -- in the case of their default -- can trigger significant cascades of shock in the supply-chain network and are thus systemically risky. Up to…
This work explores the characteristics of financial contagion in networks whose links distributions approaches a power law, using a model that defines banks balance sheets from information of network connectivity. By varying the parameters…
Common asset holdings are widely believed to have been the primary vector of contagion in the recent financial crisis. We develop a network approach to the amplification of financial contagion due to the combination of overlapping…
Threats on the stability of a financial system may severely affect the functioning of the entire economy, and thus considerable emphasis is placed on the analyzing the cause and effect of such threats. The financial crisis in the current…
Credit and liquidity risks represent main channels of financial contagion for interbank lending markets. On one hand, banks face potential losses whenever their counterparties are under distress and thus unable to fulfill their obligations.…
In normal times, it is assumed that financial institutions operating in non-overlapping sectors have complementary and distinct outcomes, typically reflected in mostly uncorrelated outcomes and asset returns. Such is the reasoning behind…
The global financial crisis in 2007-2009 demonstrated that systemic risk can spread all over the world through a complex web of financial linkages, yet we still lack fundamental knowledge about the evolution of the financial web. In…