相关论文: Life after (Soft) Default

It might be intuitive to expect that small or reimbursed financial loss resulting from credit or debit card fraud would have low or no financial impact on victims. However, little is known about the extent to which financial fraud impacts…

We show that lenders face more uncertainty when assessing default risk of historically under-served groups in US credit markets and that this information disparity is a quantitatively important driver of inefficient and unequal credit…

Society's drive toward ever faster socio-technical systems, means that there is an urgent need to understand the threat from 'black swan' extreme events that might emerge. On 6 May 2010, it took just five minutes for a spontaneous mix of…

The authors examine the concept of probability of default for asset-backed loans. In contrast to unsecured loans it is shown that probability of default can be defined as either a measure of the likelihood of the borrower failing to make…

The paper shows how to determine the loss on an LGD borrower's loan after default, with or without preparation of a separate model. LGD after default is estimated taking into account the average repayment period of the defaulted loan,…

We consider financial networks, where banks are connected by contracts such as debts or credit default swaps. We study the clearing problem in these systems: we want to know which banks end up in a default, and what portion of their…

We study a simple, solvable model that allows us to investigate effects of credit contagion on the default probability of individual firms, in both portfolios of firms and on an economy wide scale. While the effect of interactions may be…

In this paper, a new reliability model has been developed for a single system degrading stochastically which experiences soft and hard failure. Soft failure occurs when the physical deterioration level of the system is greater than a…

A system is considered, which is subject to external and possibly fatal shocks, with dependence between the fatality of a shock and the system age. Apart from these shocks, the system suffers from competing soft and sudden failures, where…

The aim of this paper is to quantify and manage systemic risk caused by default contagion in the interbank market. We model the market as a random directed network, where the vertices represent financial institutions and the weighted edges…

A new procedure is presented for the objective comparison and evaluation of default definitions. This allows the lender to find a default threshold at which the financial loss of a loan portfolio is minimised, in accordance with Basel II.…

With the widespread application of machine learning in financial risk management, conventional wisdom suggests that longer training periods and more feature variables contribute to improved model performance. This paper, focusing on…

For more than a half-century, credit risk management has used credit scoring models in each of its well-defined stages to manage credit risk. Application scoring is used to decide whether to grant a credit or not, while behavioral scoring…

This paper examines whether repeated payday loan use, commonly known as the debt trap, harms borrowers' financial wellbeing. Using Open Banking data from 1,815 UK borrowers observed between 2017 and 2018, we model borrowing intensity using…

The importance of adequately modeling credit risk has once again been highlighted in the recent financial crisis. Defaults tend to cluster around times of economic stress due to poor macro-economic conditions, {\em but also} by directly…

We develop a model to predict consumer default based on deep learning. We show that the model consistently outperforms standard credit scoring models, even though it uses the same data. Our model is interpretable and is able to provide a…

Fault tolerance is a key factor of industrial computing systems design. But in practical terms, these systems, like every commercial product, are under great financial constraints and they have to remain in operational state as long as…

In this empirical paper we show that in the months following a crash there is a distinct connection between the fall of stock prices and the increase in the range of interest rates for a sample of bonds. This variable, which is often…

It had been believed in the conventional practice that the risk of a bank going bankrupt is lessened in a straightforward manner by transferring the risk of loan defaults. But the failure of American International Group in 2008 posed a more…

We study the causes and consequences of bank runs using a novel dataset of bank runs in the United States from 1863 to 1934. Applying large language models to historical newspapers, we identify 3,421 runs on individual banks. The resulting…