相关论文: Endogenous distress contagion in a dynamic interba…
Interbank contagion can theoretically exacerbate losses in a financial system and lead to additional cascade defaults during downturn. In this paper we produce default analysis using both regression and neural network models to verify…
The aim of this paper is to quantify and manage systemic risk caused by default contagion in the interbank market. We model the market as a random directed network, where the vertices represent financial institutions and the weighted edges…
The importance of adequately modeling credit risk has once again been highlighted in the recent financial crisis. Defaults tend to cluster around times of economic stress due to poor macro-economic conditions, {\em but also} by directly…
In this paper we introduce a generalized extension of the Eisenberg-Noe model of financial contagion to allow for time dynamics of the interbank liabilities, including a dynamic examination of default risk. This framework separates the cash…
We propose a new model of the liquidity driven banking system focusing on overnight interbank loans. This significant branch of the interbank market is commonly neglected in the banking system modeling and systemic risk analysis. We…
The interconnectedness of financial institutions affects instability and credit crises. To quantify systemic risk we introduce here the PD model, a dynamic model that combines credit risk techniques with a contagion mechanism on the network…
Systemic liquidity risk, defined by the IMF as "the risk of simultaneous liquidity difficulties at multiple financial institutions", is a key topic in macroprudential policy and financial stress analysis. Specialized models to simulate…
As impressively shown by the financial crisis in 2007/08, contagion effects in financial networks harbor a great threat for the stability of the entire system. Without sufficient capital requirements for banks and other financial…
We consider a dynamic model of interconnected banks. New banks can emerge, and existing banks can default, creating a birth-and-death setup. Microscopically, banks evolve as independent geometric Brownian motions. Systemic effects are…
In this work we provide a simple setting that connects the structural modelling approach of Gai-Kapadia interbank networks with the mean-field approach to default contagion. To accomplish this we make two key contributions. First, we…
The modeling of the probability of joint default or total number of defaults among the firms is one of the crucial problems to mitigate the credit risk since the default correlations significantly affect the portfolio loss distribution and…
We consider a dynamical model of distress propagation on complex networks, which we apply to the study of financial contagion in networks of banks connected to each other by direct exposures. The model that we consider is an extension of…
Systemic risks of default contagion in the Russian interbank market are investigated. The analysis is based on considering the bow-tie structure of the weighted oriented graph describing the structure of the interbank loans. A probabilistic…
Supply chain disruptions constitute an often underestimated risk for financial stability. As in financial networks, systemic risks in production networks arises when the local failure of one firm impacts the production of others and might…
How, and to what extent, does an interconnected financial system endogenously amplify external shocks? This paper attempts to reconcile some apparently different views emerged after the 2008 crisis regarding the nature and the relevance of…
This work explores the characteristics of financial contagion in networks whose links distributions approaches a power law, using a model that defines banks balance sheets from information of network connectivity. By varying the parameters…
Banking system crises are complex events that in a short span of time can inflict extensive damage to banks themselves and to the external economy. The crisis literature has so far identified a number of distinct effects or channels that…
This paper introduces a novel framework to study default dependence and systemic risk in a financial network that evolves over time. We analyse several indicators of risk, and develop a new latent space model to assess the health of key…
This paper develops a dynamic monetary model to study the (in)stability of the fractional reserve banking system. The model shows that the fractional reserve banking system can endanger stability in that equilibrium is more prone to exhibit…
Price-mediated contagion occurs when a positive feedback loop develops following a drop in asset prices which forces banks and other financial institutions to sell their holdings. Prior studies of such events fix the level of market…