相关论文: A Fresh Look at the "Hot Hand" Paradox

The goal of developing a firmer theoretical understanding of inhomogenous temporal processes -- in particular, the waiting times in some collective dynamical system -- is attracting significant interest among physicists. Quantifying the…

What is the average number of tosses needed before a particular sequence of heads and tails turns up? We solve the problem didactically, starting with doubles, finding that a tail, followed by a head, turns up on the average after only four…

Many people have flipped coins but few have stopped to ponder the statistical and physical intricacies of the process. We collected $350{,}757$ coin flips to test the counterintuitive prediction from a physics model of human coin tossing…

We study a game in which one keeps flipping a coin until a given finite string of heads and tails occurs. We find the expected number of coin flips to end the game when the ending string consists of at most four maximal runs of heads or…

We harness both human ingenuity and the power of symbolic computation to study the number of coin tosses until reaching $n$ Heads or $m$ Tails. We also talk about the closely related problem of reaching $n$ Heads and $m$ Tails. This paper…

We consider the tail probabilities of stock returns for a general class of stochastic volatility models. In these models, the stochastic differential equation for volatility is autonomous, time-homogeneous and dependent on only a finite…

On March 16, 2024, Daniel Litt, in an X-post, proposed the following brainteaser: "Flip a fair coin 100 times. It gives a sequence of heads (H) and tails (T). For each HH in the sequence of flips, Alice gets a point; for each HT, Bob does,…

In a recent article in American Scientist, Theodore Hill described a coin-tossing game whose pay-off is the number of heads over the total number of throws. Suppose that at a given point during the game you have 5 heads and 3 tails, should…

We briefly review our recent studies on stochastic processes modelling internet on-line trading. We present a way to evaluate the average waiting time between the observation of the price in financial markets and the next price change,…

We evaluate the average waiting time between observing the price of financial markets and the next price change, especially in an on-line foreign exchange trading service for individual customers via the internet. Basic technical idea of…

Consider shuffling a deck of $n$ cards, labeled $1$ through $n$, as follows: at each time step, pick one card uniformly with your right hand and another card, independently and uniformly with your left hand; then swap the cards. How long…

Consider the following probability puzzle: A fair coin is flipped n times. For each HT in the resulting sequence, Bob gets a point, and for each HH Alice gets a point. Who is more likely to win? We provide a proof that Bob wins more often…

The Collatz sequence for a given natural number $N$ is generated by repeatedly applying the map $N$ $\rightarrow$ $3N+1$ if $N$ is odd and $N$ $\rightarrow$ $N/2$ if $N$ is even. One elusive open problem in Mathematics is whether all such…

On the set of positive integers, we consider the iterative process that maps $n$ to either $\frac{3n+1}{2}$ or $\frac{n}{2}$ depending on the parity of $n$. The Collatz conjecture states that all such sequences eventually enter the trivial…

Penney's Ante exhibits non-transitivity when two target strings race to appear in a shared stream of coin tosses. We study instead independent string races, where each player observes their own independent and identically distributed…

In 2024, Daniel Litt posed a simple coinflip game pitting Alice's "Heads-Heads" vs Bob's "Heads-Tails": who is more likely to win if they score 1 point per occurrence of their substring in a sequence of n fair coinflips? This attracted over…

The Herman Protocol Conjecture states that the expected time $\mathbb{E}(\mathbf{T})$ of Herman's self-stabilizing algorithm in a system consisting of $N$ identical processes organized in a ring holding several tokens is at most…

We study a sequential coin-flipping game in which a player starts with~$n$ coins, each landing heads independently with probability~$p$. In each round the player flips all remaining coins and must set aside at least one coin showing heads;…

We consider a normal-superconducting junction in order to investigate the effect of new physical ingredients on waiting times. First, we study the interplay between Andreev and specular scattering at the interface on the distribution of…

This paper aims to investigate the role of gold as a hedge and/or safe haven against oil price and currency market movements for medium (calm period) and large (extreme movement) fluctuations. In revisiting the role of gold, our study…