相关论文: Tail approximations of integrals of Gaussian rando…

This work considers the computation of risk measures for quantities of interest governed by PDEs with Gaussian random field parameters using Taylor approximations. While efficient, Taylor approximations are local to the point of expansion,…

In a number of applications, particularly in financial and actuarial mathematics, it is of interest to characterize the tail distribution of a random variable $V$ satisfying the distributional equation $V\stackrel{\mathcal{D}}{=}f(V)$,…

Let $\eta_1$, $\eta_2,\ldots$ be independent copies of a random variable $\eta$ with zero mean and finite variance which is bounded from the right, that is, $\eta\leq b$ almost surely for some $b>0$. Considering different types of the…

We consider the problem of probabilistic quantification of dynamical systems that have heavy-tailed characteristics. These heavy-tailed features are associated with rare transient responses due to the occurrence of internal instabilities.…

We consider the tails of probability density function (PDF) for the velocity that satisfies Burgers equation driven by a Gaussian large-scale force. The saddle-point approximation is employed in the path integral so that the calculation of…

We derive exact asymptotics of $$\mathbb{P}\left(\sup_{\mathbf{t}\in {\mathcal{A}}}X(\mathbf{t})>u\right),~ \text{as}~ u\to\infty,$$ for a centered Gaussian field $X(\mathbf{t}),~ \mathbf{t}\in \mathcal{A}\subset\mathbb{R}^n$, $n>1$ with…

Let $\{X_1, X_2, ... \}$ be a sequence of dependent heavy-tailed random variables with distributions $F_1, F_2,...$ on $(-\infty,\infty)$, and let $\tau$ be a nonnegative integer-valued random variable independent of the sequence $\{X_k, k…

We investigate a way of comparing and classifying tails of random variables. Our approach extends the notion of classical indices, such as exponential and moment indices, which are widely used measuring heaviness of tail functions. A…

In Bayesian inference, we are usually interested in the numerical approximation of integrals that are posterior expectations or marginal likelihoods (a.k.a., Bayesian evidence). In this paper, we focus on the computation of the posterior…

By using a probabilistic technique based on the exponential change of measure we find a precise tail asymptotic behavior of some perpetuities with distributions close to the Dickman distribution.

Gaussian random vectors exhibit the loss of dimension phenomena, which relate to their joint survival tail behaviour. Besides, the fact that the components of such vectors are light-tailed complicates the approximations of various…

Let $F$ be a class of functions on a probability space $(\Omega,\mu)$ and let $X_1,...,X_k$ be independent random variables distributed according to $\mu$. We establish high probability tail estimates of the form $\sup_{f \in F} |\{i :…

We give explicit bounds for the tail probabilities for sums of independent geometric or exponential variables, possibly with different parameters.

This contribution establishes exact tail asymptotics of $\sup_{(s,t)\in\mathbf{E}}$ $X(s,t)$ for a large class of nonhomogeneous Gaussian random fields $X$ on a bounded convex set $\mathbf{E}\subset\mathbb{R}^2$, with variance function that…

We consider the tail probabilities of stock returns for a general class of stochastic volatility models. In these models, the stochastic differential equation for volatility is autonomous, time-homogeneous and dependent on only a finite…

In this paper, we introduce reduced-bias estimators for the estimation of the tail index of a Pareto-type distribution. This is achieved through the use of a regularised weighted least squares with an exponential regression model for…

We compute the tail asymptotics of the product of a beta random variable and a generalized gamma random variable which are independent and have general parameters. A special case of these asymptotics were proved and used in a recent work of…

We prove that the tail probabilities of sums of independent uniform random variables, up to a multiplicative constant, are dominated by the Gaussian tail with matching variance and find the sharp constant for such stochastic domination.

The paper suggests a simple method of deriving minimax lower bounds to the accuracy of statistical inference on heavy tails. A well-known result by Hall and Welsh (Ann. Statist. 12 (1984) 1079-1084) states that if $\hat{\alpha}_n$ is an…

We propose a variational tail bound for norms of random vectors under moment assumptions on their one-dimensional marginals. A simplified version of the bound that parametrizes the ``aggregating distribution'' using a certain pushforward of…