相关论文: On Rational Bubbles and Fat Tails
We extend the model of rational bubbles of Blanchard and of Blanchard and Watson to arbitrary dimensions d: a number d of market time series are made linearly interdependent via d times d stochastic coupling coefficients. We first show that…
We introduce a simple generalization of rational bubble models which removes the fundamental problem discovered by [Lux and Sornette, 1999] that the distribution of returns is a power law with exponent less than 1, in contradiction with…
We consider a class of multiplicative processes which, added with stochastic reset events, give origin to stationary distributions with power-law tails -- ubiquitous in the statistics of social, economic, and ecological systems. Our main…
We study and generalize in various ways the model of rational expectation (RE) bubbles introduced by Blanchard and Watson in the economic literature. First, bubbles are argued to be the equivalent of Goldstone modes of the fundamental…
Power-law tails are ubiquitous in income distributions and in the energy distributions of diluted relativistic gases. We analyze the conceptual link between these two cases. In economic interactions fat tails arise because the richest…
We discuss several models in order to shed light on the origin of power-law distributions and power-law correlations in financial time series. From an empirical point of view, the exponents describing the tails of the price increments…
Financial time series have been investigated to follow fat-tailed distributions. Further, an empirical probability distribution sometimes shows cut-off shapes on its tails. To describe this stylized fact, we incorporate the cut-off effect…
In this paper we discuss the problem of the estimation of extreme event occurrence probability for data drawn from some multifractal process. We also study the heavy (power-law) tail behavior of probability density function associated with…
The size that an epidemic can reach, measured in terms of the number of fatalities, is an extremely relevant quantity. It has been recently claimed [Cirillo & Taleb, Nature Physics 2020] that the size distribution of major epidemics in…
We show that the quotient of Levy processes of jump-diffusion type has a fat-tailed distribution. An application is to price theory in economics. We show that fat tails arise endogenously from modeling of price change based on an excess…
The aim of this paper is to propose a heterogeneous agent model of stock markets that develop complicated endogenous price fluctuations. We find occurrences of non-stationary chaos, or speculative bubble, are caused by the heterogeneity of…
Fat tails in financial time series and increase of stocks cross-correlations in high volatility periods are puzzling facts that ask for new paradigms. Both points are of key importance in fundamental research as well as in Risk Management…
We introduce a new statistical tool (the TP-statistic and TE-statistic) designed specifically to compare the behavior of the sample tail of distributions with power-law and exponential tails as a function of the lower threshold u. One…
The present paper is devoted to the relativistic statistical theory, introduced in Phys. Rev. E {\bf 66} (2002) 056125 and Phys. Rev. E {\bf 72} (2005) 036108, predicting the particle distribution function $p(E)= \exp_{\kappa}…
Fat tailed statistics and power-laws are ubiquitous in many complex systems. Usually the appearance of of a few anomalously successful individuals (bio-species, investors, websites) is interpreted as reflecting some inherent "quality"…
A rational bubble is a situation in which the asset price exceeds its fundamental value defined by the present discounted value of dividends in a rational equilibrium model. We discuss the recent development of the theory of rational…
We examine random variables in the power law/regularly varying class with stochastic tail exponent, the exponent $\alpha$ having its own distribution. We show the effect of stochasticity of $\alpha$ on the expectation and higher moments of…
Noncausal, or anticipative, heavy-tailed processes generate trajectories featuring locally explosive episodes akin to speculative bubbles in financial time series data. For $(X_t)$ a two-sided infinite $\alpha$-stable moving average (MA),…
Financial time series exhibit a number of interesting properties that are difficult to explain with simple models. These properties include fat-tails in the distribution of price fluctuations (or returns) that are slowly removed at longer…
A classic problem in physics is the origin of fat tailed distributions generated by complex systems. We study the distributions of stock returns measured over different time lags $\tau.$ We find that destroying all correlations without…