相关论文: On Rational Bubbles and Fat Tails

Distributions exhibiting fat tails occur frequently in many different areas of science. A dynamical reason for fat tails can be a so-called superstatistics, where one has a superposition of local Gaussians whose variance fluctuates on a…

Statistical distributions with heavy tails are ubiquitous in natural and social phenomena. Since the entries in heavy tail have disproportional significance, the knowledge of its exact shape is very important. Citations of scientific papers…

In retrospect, the experimental findings on competitive market behavior called for a revival of the old, classical, view of competition as a collective higgling and bargaining process (as opposed to price-taking behaviors) founded on…

Ex ante forecast outcomes should be interpreted as counterfactuals (potential histories), with errors as the spread between outcomes. Reapplying measurements of uncertainty about the estimation errors of the estimation errors of an…

Power-law probability distributions are widely used to model extreme statistical events in complex systems, with applications to a vast array of natural phenomena ranging from earthquakes to stock market crashes to pandemics. We show that…

We propose a stochastic process driven by the memory effect with novel distributions which include both exponential and leptokurtic heavy-tailed distributions. A class of the distributions is analytically derived from the continuum limit of…

Modifications of the Cont-Bouchaud percolation model for price fluctuations give an asymmetry for time-reversal, an asymmetry between high and low prices, volatility clustering, effective multifractality, correlations between volatility and…

We explore the idea that the power-law tail in the mass function of protostellar condensations and stars arises from the accretion of ambient cloud material on to a condensation, coupled with a nonuniform (exponential) distribution of…

We propose a stochastic process driven by memory effect with novel distributions including both exponential and leptokurtic heavy-tailed distributions. A class of distribution is analytically derived from the continuum limit of the discrete…

We consider stochastic processes where randomly chosen particles with positive quantities x, y (> 0) interact and exchange the quantities asymmetrically by the rule x' = c{(1-a) x + b y}, y' = d{a x + (1-b) y} (x \ge y), where (0 \le) a, b…

Understanding the properties of response time distributions is a long-standing problem in cognitive science. We provide a tutorial overview of several contemporary models that assume power law scaling is a plausible description of the…

In a recent Nature paper, Gabaix et al. \cite{Gabaix03} presented a theory to explain the power law tail of price fluctuations. The main points of their theory are that volume fluctuations, which have a power law tail with exponent roughly…

We propose a random walk model of asset returns where the parameters depend on market stress. Stress is measured by, e.g., the value of an implied volatility index. We show that model parameters including standard deviations and…

By combining (i) the economic theory of rational expectation bubbles, (ii) behavioral finance on imitation and herding of investors and traders and (iii) the mathematical and statistical physics of bifurcations and phase transitions, the…

Motivated by applications in hydrodynamics and networks of thermostatically-control loads in buildings we study control of linear dynamical systems driven by additive and also multiplicative noise of a general position. Utilizing…

To account quantitatively for many reported ``natural'' fat tail distributions in Nature and Economy, we propose the stretched exponential family as a complement to the often used power law distributions. It has many advantages, among which…

Detection of power-law behavior and studies of scaling exponents uncover the characteristics of complexity in many real world phenomena. The complexity of financial markets has always presented challenging issues and provided interesting…

We present a self-consistent model for explosive financial bubbles, which combines a mean-reverting volatility process and a stochastic conditional return which reflects nonlinear positive feedbacks and continuous updates of the investors'…

It is argued that there is a need for fat-tailed distributions that become thin in the extreme tail. A 3-parameter distribution is introduced that visually resembles the t-distribution and interpolates between the normal distribution and…

This paper considers one-dimensional mixed causal/noncausal autoregressive (MAR) processes with heavy tail, usually introduced to model trajectories with patterns including asymmetric peaks and throughs, speculative bubbles, flash crashes,…