相关论文: On Rational Bubbles and Fat Tails

(The third edition corrects minor typos and adds 3 chapters synthesized from published papers plus an appendix on maximum entropy distributions.) The monograph investigates the misapplication of conventional statistical techniques to fat…

We analyze quantitatively the effect of spurious multifractality induced by the presence of fat-tailed symmetric and asymmetric probability distributions of fluctuations in time series. In the presented approach different kinds of symmetric…

Prices in financial markets exhibit extreme jumps far more often than can be accounted for by external news. Further, magnitudes of price changes are correlated over long times. These so called stylized facts are quantified by scaling laws…

One of the standardized features of financial data is that log-returns are uncorrelated, but absolute log-returns or their squares namely the fluctuating volatility are correlated and is characterized by heavy tailed in the sense that some…

A large consensus now seems to take for granted that the distributions of empirical returns of financial time series are regularly varying, with a tail exponent close to 3. We revisit this results and use standard tests as well as develop a…

Inhomogeneous temporal processes, like those appearing in human communications, neuron spike trains, and seismic signals, consist of high-activity bursty intervals alternating with long low-activity periods. In recent studies such bursty…

We investigate the mechanisms behind the power-law distribution of stock returns using artificial market simulations. While traditional financial theory assumes Gaussian price fluctuations, empirical studies consistently show that the tails…

"Rational bubble", as introduced by the famous paper on money by Samuelson (1958), means speculation backed by nothing. The large subsequent rational bubble literature has identified attaching bubbles to dividend-paying assets in a natural…

This article provides a self-contained overview of the theory of rational asset price bubbles. We cover topics from basic definitions, properties, and classical results to frontier research, with an emphasis on bubbles attached to real…

[Takayasu et al., Phys. Rev.Lett. 79, 966 (1997)] revisited the question of stochastic processes with multiplicative noise, which have been studied in several different contexts over the past decades. We focus on the regime, found for a…

It is well known that the distribution of returns from various financial instruments are leptokurtic, meaning that the distributions have "fatter tails" than a Normal distribution, and have skew toward zero. This paper presents a graceful…

Strong anomalous diffusion is {often} characterized by a piecewise-linear spectrum of the moments of displacement. The spectrum is characterized by slopes $\xi$ and $\zeta$ for small and large moments, respectively, and by the critical…

Many man-made and natural phenomena, including the intensity of earthquakes, population of cities and size of international wars, are believed to follow power-law distributions. The accurate identification of power-law patterns has…

The emergence of heavy-tailed statistics in complex systems is conventionally attributed to non-local stochastic jumps or non-Markovian memory. Here, we present a one-dimensional random walk where power-law behaviors arise instead from a…

I report a new statistical distribution formulated to confront the infamous, long-standing, computational/modeling challenge presented by highly skewed and/or leptokurtic ("fat- or heavy-tailed") data. The distribution is straightforward,…

Starting from the model of continuous time random walk, we focus our interest on random walks in which the probability distributions of the waiting times and jumps have fat tails characterized by power laws with exponent between 0 and 1 for…

We show that assuming that the returns are independent when conditioned on the value of their variance (volatility), which itself varies in time randomly, then the distribution of returns is well described by the statistics of the sum of…

Multiplicative random processes in (not necessaryly equilibrium or steady state) stochastic systems with many degrees of freedom lead to Boltzmann distributions when the dynamics is expressed in terms of the logarithm of the normalized…

In a quenched mesoscopic fluid, modelling transport processes at high densities, we perform computer simulations of the single particle energy autocorrelation function C_e(t), which is essentially a return probability. This is done to test…

Implementing a set of microeconomic criteria, we develop price dynamics equations using a function of demand/supply with key symmetry properties. The function of demand/supply can be linear or nonlinear. The type of function determines the…