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In many real-world causal inference applications, the primary outcomes (labels) are often partially missing, especially if they are expensive or difficult to collect. If the missingness depends on covariates (i.e., missingness is not…

Surrogate models provide compact relations between user-defined input parameters and output quantities of interest, enabling the efficient evaluation of complex parametric systems in many-query settings. Such capabilities are essential in a…

数值分析 · 数学 2026-03-16 Matteo Giacomini , Pedro Díez

When evaluating the effectiveness of a treatment, policy, or intervention, the desired measure of effectiveness may be expensive to collect, not routinely available, or may take a long time to occur. In these cases, it is sometimes possible…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-11-10 Denis Agniel , Layla Parast , Boris Hejblum

The development of statistical methods to evaluate surrogate markers is an active area of research. In many clinical settings, the surrogate marker is not simply a single measurement but is instead a longitudinal trajectory of measurements…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-02-28 Denis Agniel , Layla Parast

Clinical trials or studies oftentimes require long-term and/or costly follow-up of participants to evaluate a novel treatment/drug/vaccine. There has been increasing interest in the past few decades in using short-term surrogate outcomes as…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-12-19 Xuan Wang , Tianxi Cai , Lu Tian , Layla Parast

Surrogate markers are most commonly studied within the context of randomized clinical trials. However, the need for alternative outcomes extends beyond these settings and may be more pronounced in real-world public health and social science…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-04-23 Rebecca Knowlton , Layla Parast

The optimization of large-scale multibody systems is a numerically challenging task, in particular when considering multiple conflicting criteria at the same time. In this situation, we need to approximate the Pareto set of optimal…

Trial level surrogates are useful tools for improving the speed and cost effectiveness of trials, but surrogates that have not been properly evaluated can cause misleading results. The evaluation procedure is often contextual and depends on…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-08-23 Michael C Sachs , Erin E Gabriel , Alessio Crippa , Michael J Daniels

In many randomized trials, outcomes such as essays or open-ended responses must be manually scored as a preliminary step to impact analysis, a process that is costly and limiting. Model-assisted estimation offers a way to combine surrogate…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-02-16 Reagan Mozer , Nicole E. Pashley , Luke Miratrix

Surrogate endpoints are often used in place of expensive, delayed, or rare true endpoints in clinical trials. However, regulatory authorities require thorough evaluation to accept these surrogate endpoints as reliable substitutes. One…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-10-08 Gokce Deliorman , Florian Stijven , Wim Van der Elst , Maria del Carmen Pardo , Ariel Alonso

Mediation analysis for survival outcomes is challenging. Most existing methods quantify the treatment effect using the hazard ratio (HR) and attempt to decompose the HR into the direct effect of treatment plus an indirect, or mediated,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-02-27 Alex Ocampo , Enrico Giudice , Dieter A. Häring , Baldur Magnusson , Theis Lange , Zachary R. McCaw

Adaptive subgroup enrichment design is an efficient design framework that allows accelerated development for investigational treatments while also having flexibility in population selection within the course of the trial. The adaptive…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-10-21 Liwen Wu , Qing Li , Mengya Liu , Jianchang Lin

Surrogate markers are often used in clinical trials to evaluate treatment effects when primary outcomes are costly, invasive, or take a long time to observe. However, reliance on surrogates can lead to the surrogate paradox, where a…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-06-17 Emily Hsiao , Lu Tian , Layla Parast

An intermediate response measure that accurately predicts efficacy in a new setting can reduce trial cost and time to product licensure. In this paper, we define a trial level general surrogate as a trial level intermediate response that…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2015-07-08 Erin E. Gabriel , Michael J. Daniels , M. Elizabeth Halloran

Objective: Traditionally validation of surrogate endpoints has been carried out using RCT data. However, RCT data may be too limited to validate surrogate endpoints. In this paper, we sought to improve validation of surrogate endpoints with…

应用统计 · 统计学 2021-12-17 Lorna Wheaton , Anastasios Papanikos , Anne Thomas , Sylwia Bujkiewicz

Surrogate models are often used as computationally efficient approximations to complex simulation models, enabling tasks such as solving inverse problems, sensitivity analysis, and probabilistic forward predictions, which would otherwise be…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-05-13 Philipp Reiser , Paul-Christian Bürkner , Anneli Guthke

Mediation analysis seeks to identify and quantify the paths by which an exposure affects an outcome. Intermediate variables which are effected by the exposure and which effect the outcome are known as mediators. There exists extensive work…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-11-13 James P. Long , Ehsan Irajizad , James D. Doecke , Kim-Anh Do , Min Jin Ha

The identification of surrogate markers is motivated by their potential to make decisions sooner about a treatment effect. However, few methods have been developed to actually use a surrogate marker to test for a treatment effect in a…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-09-17 Layla Parast , Jay Bartroff

Often in Phase 3 clinical trials measuring a long-term time-to-event endpoint, such as overall survival or progression-free survival, investigators also collect repeated measures on biomarkers which may be predictive of the primary…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-11-30 Abigail J. Burdon , Lisa V. Hampson , Christopher Jennison

In many decision-making problems, the primary outcome is expensive, time-consuming, or difficult to observe, so individualized treatment rules (ITRs) may be instead learned from surrogate endpoints. However, a surrogate that is highly…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-13 Zeyu Xu , Xiaojie Mao , Hao Mei , Yue Liu