相关论文: Duration of Transients in Outbreaks: When can Infe…
In this paper we are concerned with the Susceptible-Infective-Removed model with random transition rates on complete graphs $C_n$ with $n$ vertices. We assign i. i. d. copies of a positive random variable $\xi$ on each vertex as the…
Much of the research on the behavior of the SIS model on networks has concerned the infinite size limit; in particular the phase transition between a state where outbreaks can reach a finite fraction of the population, and a state where…
Towards the end of an infectious disease outbreak, when a period has elapsed without new case notifications, a key question for public health policy makers is whether the outbreak can be declared over. This requires the benefits of a…
The SIR model is the cornerstone model for mathematical epidemiology, explaining key epidemic features such as the second-order transition between disease-free and epidemic states, the initial exponential growth of outbreaks or the…
Recent years have seen a large amount of interest in epidemics on networks as a way of representing the complex structure of contacts capable of spreading infections through the modern human population. The configuration model is a popular…
We consider Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) models on dense dynamic random graphs, in which the joint dynamics of vertices and edges are co-evolutionary, i.e., they influence each other bidirectionally. In particular, edges appear and…
The number of new infections per day is a key quantity for effective epidemic management. It can be estimated relatively directly by testing of random population samples. Without such direct epidemiological measurement, other approaches are…
Attempts to curb the spread of coronavirus by introducing strict quarantine measures apparently have different effect in different countries: while the number of new cases has reportedly decreased in China and South Korea, it still exhibit…
We introduce a modified SIR model with memory for the dynamics of epidemic spreading in a constant population of individuals. Each individual is in one of the states susceptible (${\bf S}$), infected (${\bf I}$) or recovered (${\bf R}$). In…
We consider evoSIR, a variant of the SIR model, on Erd\H os-Renyi random graphs in which susceptibles with an infected neighbor break that connection at rate $\rho$ and rewire to a randomly chosen individual. We compute the critical…
We examine the age-structured SIR model, a variant of the classical Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model of epidemic propagation, in the context of COVID-19. In doing so, we provide a theoretical basis for the model, perform an…
COVID-19 pandemic has become a major threat to the country. Till date, well tested medication or antidote is not available to cure this disease. According to WHO reports, COVID-19 is a severe acute respiratory syndrome which is transmitted…
The generation interval is the time between the infection time of an infected person and the infection time of his or her infector. Probability density functions for generation intervals have been an important input for epidemic models and…
Stochastic discrete-time SIS and SIR models of endemic diseases are introduced and analyzed. For the deterministic, mean-field model, the basic reproductive number $R_0$ determines their global dynamics. If $R_0\le 1$, then the frequency of…
In this paper, we develop a method to estimate the infection-rate of a disease, over a region, as a field that varies in space and time. To do so, we use time-series of case-counts of symptomatic patients as observed in the areal units that…
The symptoms of many infectious diseases influence their host to withdraw from social activity limiting their own potential to spread. Successful transmission therefore requires the onset of infectiousness to coincide with a time when its…
We consider the spread of a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) disease through finite populations and derive an expression for the final size distribution. Our derivation allows arbitrary distributions of the number of transmissions…
We study the extinction of epidemics in a simplicial susceptible-infected-susceptible model, where each susceptible individual becomes infected either by two-body interactions ($S+I \to 2I$) with a rate $\beta$ or by three-body interactions…
The U.S. Covid-19 data exhibit a high-frequency oscillation along a low-frequency wave for outbreaks. There is no model to account for it. A modified SIR model is proposed to explain this spiking phenomenon. It is also used to best-fit the…
A method for detecting a trend change in cross-border epidemic transmission is developed for a standard epidemiological SIR compartment model and a meta-population network model. The method is applicable to investigating the efficacy of the…