相关论文: Duration of Transients in Outbreaks: When can Infe…

We show that a certain model for the spread of an infection has a phase transition in the recuperation rate. The model is as follows: There are particles or individuals of type A and type B, interpreted as healthy and infected,…

The estimate of the remaining time of an ongoing wave of epidemic spreading is a critical issue. Due to the variations of a wide range of parameters in an epidemic, for simple models such as Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model, it is…

The stochastic SIRS model is a continuous-time Markov chain modelling the spread of infectious diseases with temporary immunity, in a homogeneously-mixing population of fixed size $N$. We study the scaling behaviour of the extinction time…

We study an SEIQR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Quarantined-Recovered) model for an infectious disease, with time delays for latency and an asymptomatic phase. For fast pandemics where nobody has prior immunity and everyone has immunity…

We study the susceptible-infective-recovered (SIR) epidemic on a random graph chosen uniformly subject to having given vertex degrees. In this model infective vertices infect each of their susceptible neighbours, and recover, at a constant…

We propose a simple SIR model in order to investigate the impact of various confinement strategies on a most virulent epidemic. Our approach is motivated by the current COVID-19 pandemic. The main hypothesis is the existence of two…

Epidemic models currently play a central role in our attempts to understand and control infectious diseases. Here, we derive a model for the diffusion limit of stochastic susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) epidemic dynamics on a…

We study SIR type epidemics on graphs in two scenarios: (i) when the initial infections start from a well connected central region, (ii) when initial infections are distributed uniformly. Previously, \'Odor et al. demonstrated on a few…

We present a very simple and transparent method to interpret time series of confirmed Covid-19 cases. Roughly speaking, the analysis of weekly new infections for each day is a tool for the definition and early detection of the turning point…

The main aim of the work is to present a general class of two time scales discrete-time epidemic models. In the proposed framework the disease dynamics is considered to act on a slower time scale than a second different process that could…

We study the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) and the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) models of epidemics, with possibly time-varying rates, on a class of networks that are locally tree-like, which includes sparse…

The infection dynamics of a population under stationary isolation conditions is modeled. It is underlined that the stationary character of the isolation measures can be expected to imply that an effective SIR model with constant parameters…

The pattern formation and spatial spread of infectious populations are investigated using a kernel-based Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model applicable across a wide range of basic reproduction numbers $R_o$. The focus is on the…

Compartmental models are the most widely used framework for modeling infectious diseases. These models have been continuously refined to incorporate all the realistic mechanisms that can shape the course of an epidemic outbreak. Building on…

In stochastic modeling of infectious diseases, it has been established that variations in infectivity affect the probability of a major outbreak, but not the shape of the curves during a major outbreak, which is predicted by deterministic…

We study a stochastic model of infection spreading on a network. At each time step a node is chosen at random, along with one of its neighbors. If the node is infected and the neighbor is susceptible, the neighbor becomes infected. How many…

Fitting Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) models to incidence data is problematic when not all infected individuals are reported. Assuming an underlying SIR model with general but known distribution for the time to recovery, this paper…

Containment measures implemented by some countries to suppress the spread of COVID-19 have resulted in a slowdown of the epidemic characterized by time series of daily infections plateauing over extended periods of time. We prove that such…

It has long been known that epidemics can travel along communication lines, such as roads. In the current COVID-19 epidemic, it has been observed that major roads have enhanced its propagation in Italy. We propose a new simple model of…

We study the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model in complex networks, considering that not all individuals in the population interact in the same way between them. This heterogeneity between contacts is modeled by a continuous disorder. In…