相关论文: Duration of Transients in Outbreaks: When can Infe…
For a susceptible-infectious-susceptible (SIS) infection model in a heterogeneous population, we present simple formulae giving the leading-order asymptotic (large population) behaviour of the mean persistence time, from an endemic state to…
During epidemics, estimation of the effective reproduction number (ERN) associated with infectious disease is a challenging topic for policy development and medical resource management. There is still an open question about the dominant…
The two-step contagion model is a simple toy model for understanding pandemic outbreaks that occur in the real world. The model takes into account that a susceptible person either gets immediately infected or weakened when getting into…
To reduce the biases of traditional survey-based methods, this paper proposes an epidemic model-based approach to inference the incubation period distribution of COVID-19 utilizing the publicly reported confirmed case number. We construct…
Infectious disease superspreading caused by heterogeneity in contact behavior has been observed to be an important determinant of epidemic dynamics and size in both empirical and theoretical settings. However, it has also been observed that…
Characterizing the spatial extent of epidemics at the outbreak stage is key to controlling the evolution of the disease. At the outbreak, the number of infected individuals is typically small, so that fluctuations around their average are…
We study the extinction of epidemics in a generalized susceptible-infected-susceptible model, where a susceptible individual becomes infected with the rate $\lambda$ when contacting $m$ infective individual(s) simultaneously, and an…
During an infectious disease outbreak, providing accurate answers to policy questions about transmission requires a detailed model of the natural history of infectiousness. Unfortunately, direct measures of infectiousness are generally…
We study a simple realistic model for describing the diffusion of an infectious disease on a population of individuals. The dynamics is governed by a single functional delay differential equation, which, in the case of a large population,…
In a pandemic like Covid-19, there are many countries of lower-earning cannot provide a complete locked-down within the duration of the detected case. The locked-down may result in famine throughout the region of underdeveloped countries…
How to prevent the spread of human diseases is a great challenge for the scientific community and so far there are many studies in which immunization strategies have been developed. However, these kind of strategies usually do not consider…
Aim of this manuscript is to show a simple method to infer the time-course of new COVID-19 infections (the most important information in order to establish the effect of containment strategies) from available aggregated data, such as number…
Knowledge of the time at which an HIV-infected individual seroconverts, when the immune system starts responding to HIV infection, plays a vital role in the design and implementation of interventions to reduce the impact of the HIV…
We consider the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemic model on a Euclidean network in one dimension in which nodes at a distance $l$ are connected with probability $P(l) \propto l^{-\delta}$ in addition to nearest neighbors. The…
In the absence of other tools, monitoring the effects of protective measures, including social distancing and forecasting the outcome of outbreaks is of immense interest. Real-time data is noisy and very often hampered by systematic errors…
We used Bayesian model inversion to estimate epidemic parameters from the reported case and death rates from seven countries using data from late January 2020 to April 5th 2020. Two distinct generative model types were employed: first a…
Models for resident infectious diseases, like the SIRS model, may settle into an endemic state with constant numbers of susceptible ($S$), infected ($I$) and recovered ($R$) individuals, where recovered individuals attain a temporary…
Epidemics like Covid-19 and Ebola have impacted people's lives significantly. The impact of mobility of people across the countries or states in the spread of epidemics has been significant. The spread of disease due to factors local to the…
Compartmental transmission models have become an invaluable tool to study the dynamics of infectious diseases. The Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model is known to have an exact semi-analytical solution. In the current study, the…
The spread of infectious diseases crucially depends on the pattern of contacts among individuals. Knowledge of these patterns is thus essential to inform models and computational efforts. Few empirical studies are however available that…