相关论文: Quantifying the Unexpected: a scientific approach …

In the scientific literature, the term emergent phenomena is invoked in the context of a collective behavior observed in a complex adaptive system that exhibits no correspondence with the behavior of the system constituents. Although this…

The collapse of man-made and natural structures is a complex phenomenon that has been studied for centuries. We propose a new approach to understanding catastrophic instabilities, based on the idea that they do not occur at the critical…

Gravitational waves (GW), emanating from binary black holes (BBH), encode vital information about their source. GW signals enable us to deduce key properties of the BBH population across the universe, including mass, spin, and eccentricity…

In finite probability theory, events are subsets of the outcome set. Subsets can be represented by 1-dimensional column vectors. By extending the representation of events to two dimensional matrices, we can introduce "superposition events."…

Catastrophe Markov chain population models have received a lot of attention in the recent past. We herewith consider two special cases of such models involving total disasters, both in discrete and in continuous-time. Depending on the…

Information extracted from social media streams has been leveraged to forecast the outcome of a large number of real-world events, from political elections to stock market fluctuations. An increasing amount of studies demonstrates how the…

The present paper studies the limiting behavior of the average score of a sequentially selected group of items or individuals, the underlying distribution of which, $F$, belongs to the Gumbel domain of attraction of extreme value…

The Sun is observed in unprecedented detail, enabling studies of its activity on very small spatiotemporal scales. However, the large volume of data collected by our telescopes cannot be fully analyzed with conventional methods. Popular…

This paper is devoted to establish quantitative and qualitative estimates related to the notion of chaos as firstly formulated by M. Kac in his study of mean-field limit for systems of $N$ undistinguishable particles. First, we…

Economy is demanding new models, able to understand and predict the evolution of markets. To this respect, Econophysics is offering models of markets as complex systems, such as the gas-like model, able to predict money distributions…

Many rare weather events, including hurricanes, droughts, and floods, dramatically impact human life. To accurately forecast these events and characterize their climatology requires specialized mathematical techniques to fully leverage the…

Rare events in stochastic processes with heavy-tailed distributions are controlled by the big jump principle, which states that a rare large fluctuation is produced by a single event and not by an accumulation of coherent small deviations.…

Anomalous diffusion and L\'evy flights, which are characterized by the occurrence of random discrete jumps of all scales, have been observed in a plethora of natural and engineered systems, ranging from the motion of molecules to climate…

Anomaly detection methods are widely used but often rely on ad hoc rules or strong assumptions, and they often focus on tail events, missing ``inlier'' anomalies that occur in low-density gaps between modes. We propose a unified framework…

We investigate the statistics of selected rare events in a (1+1)-dimensional (classical) stochastic growth model which describes the evolution of (quantum) random unitary circuits. In such classical formulation, particles are created and/or…

This book provides a comprehensive introduction for the study of extreme events in the context of dynamical systems. The introduction provides a broad overview of the interdisciplinary research area of extreme events, underlining its…

The total number of fatalities of an epidemic outbreak is a dramatic but extremely informative quantity. Knowledge of the statistics of this quantity allows the calculation of the mean total number of fatalities conditioned to the fact that…

Rare events in the first-passage distributions of jump processes are capable of triggering anomalous reactions or series of events. Estimating their probability is particularly important when the jump probabilities have broad-tailed…

Critical phenomena near continuous phase transitions are typically observed on the scale of wavelengths of visible light[1]. Here we report similar phenomena for atmospheric precipitation on scales of tens of kilometers. Our observations…

Major disasters such as extreme weather events can magnify and exacerbate pre-existing social disparities, with disadvantaged populations bearing disproportionate costs. Despite the implications for equity and emergency planning, we lack a…