相关论文: Quantifying the Unexpected: a scientific approach …

Ninety gravitational wave events have been detected by the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA network and are released in the Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalog. Among these events, 83 cases are definitely binary black hole mergers since the masses of all…

The existence of various physical phenomena stems from the concept called asymptotic emergence, that is, they seem to be exclusively reserved for certain limiting theories. Important examples are spontaneous symmetry breaking (SSB) and…

We study extreme events of avalanche activities in finite-size two-dimensional self-organized critical (SOC) models, specifically the stochastic Manna model (SMM) and the Bak-Tang-Weisenfeld (BTW) sandpile model. Employing the approach of…

Peculiar velocity encodes rich information about the formation, dynamics, evolution, and merging history of binary black holes. In this work, we employ a hierarchical Bayesian model to infer the peculiar velocity distribution of binary…

We consider the problem of probabilistic quantification of dynamical systems that have heavy-tailed characteristics. These heavy-tailed features are associated with rare transient responses due to the occurrence of internal instabilities.…

Numerical climate models are complex and combine a large number of physical processes. They are key tools in quantifying the relative contribution of potential anthropogenic causes (e.g., the current increase in greenhouse gases) on high…

In Everett's many worlds interpretation, quantum measurements are considered to be decoherence events. If so, then inexact decoherence may allow large worlds to mangle the memory of observers in small worlds, creating a cutoff in observable…

Although many computational methods for rare event sampling exist, this type of calculation is not usually practical for general nonequilibrium conditions, with macroscopically irreversible dynamics and away from both stationary and…

Fractals, 1/f noise, Zipf's law, and the occurrence of large catastrophic events are typical ubiquitous general empirical observations across the individual sciences which cannot be understood within the set of references developed within…

I present a unified discussion of several recently published results concerning the escalation, timing and severity of violent events in human conflicts and global terrorism, and set them in the wider context of real-world and cyber-based…

We analyse the probability densities of daily rainfall amounts at a variety of locations on the Earth. The observed distributions of the amount of rainfall fit well to a q-exponential distribution with exponent q close to q=1.3. We discuss…

We study rare events in networks with both internal and external noise, and develop a general formalism for analyzing rare events that combines pair-quenched techniques and large-deviation theory. The probability distribution, shape, and…

Climate extremes such as floods, storms, and heatwaves have caused severe economic and human losses across Europe in recent decades. To support the European Union's climate resilience efforts, we propose a statistical framework for…

We study the statistics of the maximum and minimum of a set of $N$ random variables whose dynamical and statistical properties fall within the scope of infinite ergodic theory. These non-stationary yet recurrent systems are described, in…

We point out that the functional form describing the frequency of sizes of events in complex systems (e.g. earthquakes, forest fires, bursts of neuronal activity) can be obtained from maximal likelihood inference, which, remarkably, only…

The size distribution of planned and forced outages and following restoration times in power systems have been studied for almost two decades and has drawn great interest as they display heavy tails. Understanding of this phenomenon has…

Randomness in scientific estimation is generally assumed to arise from unmeasured or uncontrolled factors. However, when combining subjective probability estimates, heterogeneity stemming from people's cognitive or information diversity is…

We suggest an original physical approach to describe the mechanism of market pricing. The core of our approach is to consider pricing at different time scales separately, using independent equations of motion. Such an approach leads to a…

When extreme weather events affect large areas, their regional to sub-continental spatial scale is important for their impacts. We propose a novel machine learning (ML) framework that integrates spatial extreme-value theory to model weather…

During the last years, statistical physics has received an increasing attention as a framework for the analysis of real complex systems; yet, this is less clear in the case of international political events, partly due to the complexity in…