相关论文: Quantifying the Unexpected: a scientific approach …

We present a novel statistical treatment, the "metastatistics of extreme events", for calculating the frequency of extreme events. This approach, which is of general validity, is the proper statistical framework to address the problem of…

The distribution of inter-occurrence time between seismic events is a quantity of great interest in seismic risk assessment. We evaluate this distribution for different models of earthquakes occurrence and follow two distinct approaches:…

The recent availability of large databases allows to study macroscopic properties of many complex systems. However, inferring a model from a fit of empirical data without any knowledge of the dynamics might lead to erroneous interpretations…

More than one billion data sampled with different frequencies from several financial instruments were investigated with the aim of testing whether they involve power law. As a result, a known power law with the power exponent around -4 was…

Disruptions in energy imports, backlash in social acceptance, and novel technologies failing to develop are unexpected events that are often overlooked in energy planning, despite their ability to jeopardize the energy transition. We…

We address this work to investigate some statistical properties of symbolic sequences generated by a numerical procedure in which the symbols are repeated following a power law probability density. In this analysis, we consider that the sum…

This article examines the subtle relationship between chaos and randomness, two concepts that, although they refer to seemingly unpredictable phenomenon, are based on fundamentally different principles. Chaos manifests in deterministic…

Evaluating rare-event forecasts is challenging because standard metrics collapse as event prevalence declines. Measures such as F1-score, AUPRC, MCC, and accuracy induce degenerate thresholds -- converging to zero or one -- and their values…

In this study, the cumulative effect of the empirical probability distribution of a random variable is identified as a factor that amplifies the occurrence of extreme events in datasets. To quantify this observation, a corresponding…

In order to assess future damage caused by natural disasters, it is desirable to estimate the damage caused by single events. So called damage functions provide -- for a natural disaster of certain magnitude -- a specific damage value.…

By integrating 4 lines of thoughts: symmetry breaking originally advanced by Anderson, bifurcation from nonlinear dynamics, Landau's theory of phase transition, and the mechanism of emergent rare events studied by Kramers, we introduce a…

We study deterministic systems, composed of excitable units of FitzHugh-Nagumo type, that are capable of self-generating and self-terminating strong deviations from their regular dynamics without the influence of noise or parameter change.…

Economy is demanding new models, able to understand and predict the evolution of markets. To this respect, Econophysics offers models of markets as complex systems, that try to comprehend macro-, system-wide states of the economy from the…

We introduce a non-growth model that generates the power-law distribution with the Zipf exponent. There are N elements, each of which is characterized by a quantity, and at each time step these quantities are redistributed through binary…

Complexity is an important metric for appropriate characterization of different classes of irregular signals, observed in the laboratory or in nature. The literature is already rich in the description of such measures using a variety of…

Intermittent large amplitude events are seen in the temporal evolution of a state variable of many dynamical systems. Such intermittent large events suddenly start appearing in dynamical systems at a critical value of a system parameter and…

An extreme event is a sudden and violent change in the state of a nonlinear system. In fluid dynamics, extreme events can have adverse effects on the system's optimal design and operability, which calls for accurate methods for their…

Despite the importance of quantifying how the spatial patterns of extreme precipitation will change with warming, we lack tools to objectively analyze the storm-scale outputs of modern climate models. To address this gap, we develop an…

In the present work, via computational simulation we study the statistical distribution of people versus number of steps acquired by them in a learning process, considering Darwin classical theory of evolution, i.e. competition, learning…

Due to their often unexpected nature, natural and man-made disasters are difficult to monitor and detect for journalists and disaster management response teams. Journalists are increasingly relying on signals from social media to detect…