相关论文: Bayesian inference and superstatistics to describe…

Dynamical systems in nature exhibit selfsimilar fractal fluctuations and the corresponding power spectra follow inverse power law form signifying long-range space-time correlations identified as self-organized criticality. The physics of…

It is well known that the probability distribution of high-frequency financial returns is characterized by a leptokurtic, heavy-tailed shape. This behavior undermines the typical assumption of Gaussian log-returns behind the standard…

Nonequilibrium complex systems are often effectively described by the mixture of different dynamics on different time scales. Superstatistics, which is "statistics of statistics" with two largely separated time scales, offers a consistent…

In this paper we discuss the problem of the estimation of extreme event occurrence probability for data drawn from some multifractal process. We also study the heavy (power-law) tail behavior of probability density function associated with…

The irreversibility of trajectories in stochastic dynamical systems is linked to the structure of their causal representation in terms of Bayesian networks. We consider stochastic maps resulting from a time discretization with interval \tau…

Volatility estimation based on high-frequency data is key to accurately measure and control the risk of financial assets. A L\'{e}vy process with infinite jump activity and microstructure noise is considered one of the simplest, yet…

Volatility clustering is a common phenomenon in financial time series. Typically, linear models can be used to describe the temporal autocorrelation of the (logarithmic) variance of returns. Considering the difficulty in estimating this…

Share price returns on different time scales can be well modelled by a superstatistical dynamics. Here we provide an investigation which type of superstatistics is most suitable to properly describe share price dynamics on various time…

We report a general technique to study a given experimental time series with superstatistics. Crucial for the applicability of the superstatistics concept is the existence of a parameter $\beta$ that fluctuates on a large time scale as…

We present an empirical study of the subordination hypothesis for a stochastic time series of a stock price. The fluctuating rate of trading is identified with the stochastic variance of the stock price, as in the continuous-time random…

A new model for stock price fluctuations is proposed, based upon an analogy with the motion of tracers in Gaussian random fields, as used in turbulent dispersion models and in studies of transport in dynamically disordered media. Analytical…

Many physicists think that the maximum entropy formalism is a straightforward application of Bayesian statistical ideas to statistical mechanics. Some even say that statistical mechanics is just the general Bayesian logic of inductive…

An analysis of the stylized facts in financial time series is carried out. We find that, instead of the heavy tails in asset return distributions, the slow decay behaviour in autocorrelation functions of absolute returns is actually…

Standard quantitative models of the stock market predict a log-normal distribution for stock returns (Bachelier 1900, Osborne 1959), but it is recognised (Fama 1965) that empirical data, in comparison with a Gaussian, exhibit leptokurtosis…

Investigations of inverse statistics (a concept borrowed from turbulence) in stock markets, exemplified with filtered Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and NASDAQ, have uncovered a novel stylized fact that the distribution of exit time…

Large entropy fluctuations in an equilibrium steady state of classical mechanics were studied in extensive numerical experiments on a simple 2--freedom strongly chaotic Hamiltonian model described by the modified Arnold cat map. The rise…

We use a continuous-time random walk (CTRW) to model market fluctuation data from times when traders experience excessive losses or excessive profits. We analytically derive "superstatistics" that accurately model empirical market activity…

Motivated by stochastic models of climate phenomena, the steady-state of a linear stochastic model with additive Gaussian white noise is studied. Fluctuation theorems for nonequilibrium steady-states provide a constraint on the character of…

The long-term behavior of a supercritical branching random walk can be described and analyzed with the help of Biggins' martingales, parametrized by real or complex numbers. The study of these martingales with complex parameters is a rather…

The extreme event statistics plays a very important role in the theory and practice of time series analysis. The reassembly of classical theoretical results is often undermined by non-stationarity and dependence between increments.…