相关论文: MCMC Confidence Intervals and Biases

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) yield internally valid causal effect estimates, but generalizing these results to target populations with different characteristics requires an untestable selection ignorability assumption: conditional on…

The commonly quoted error rates for QMC integration with an infinite low discrepancy sequence is $O(n^{-1}\log(n)^r)$ with $r=d$ for extensible sequences and $r=d-1$ otherwise. Such rates hold uniformly over all $d$ dimensional integrands…

We study frequentist confidence intervals based on graphical profile likelihoods (Wilks' theorem, likelihood integration), and the Feldman-Cousins (FC) prescription, a generalisation of the Neyman belt construction, in a setting with…

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling is computationally expensive, especially for complex models. Alternative methods make simplifying assumptions about the posterior to reduce computational burden, but their impact on predictive…

We present a new method for constructing a confidence interval for the mean of a bounded random variable from samples of the random variable. We conjecture that the confidence interval has guaranteed coverage, i.e., that it contains the…

The Central Limit Theorem (CLT) is one of the most fundamental results in statistics. It states that the standardized sample mean of a sequence of $n$ mutually independent and identically distributed random variables with finite first and…

The maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) is a kernel-based distance between probability distributions useful in many applications (Gretton et al. 2012), bearing a simple estimator with pleasing computational and statistical properties. Being able…

Central limit theorems (CLTs) for high-dimensional random vectors with dimension possibly growing with the sample size have received a lot of attention in the recent times. Chernozhukov et al. (2017) proved a Berry--Esseen type result for…

Consider a $N\times n$ random matrix $Y_n=(Y_{ij}^{n})$ where the entries are given by $$ Y_{ij}^{n}=\frac{\sigma_{ij}(n)}{\sqrt{n}} X_{ij}^{n} $$ the $X_{ij}^{n}$ being centered, independent and identically distributed random variables…

The (CLT) central limit theorems for generalized Frechet means (data descriptors assuming values in stratified spaces, such as intrinsic means, geodesics, etc.) on manifolds from the literature are only valid if a certain empirical process…

In constrained parameter estimation, the classical constrained Cramer-Rao bound (CCRB) and the recent Lehmann-unbiased CCRB (LU-CCRB) are lower bounds on the performance of mean-unbiased and Lehmann-unbiased estimators, respectively. Both…

We rely on Monte Carlo (MC) simulations to interpret searches for new physics at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) and elsewhere. These simulations result in noisy and approximate estimators of selection efficiencies and likelihoods. In this…

In econometrics, many parameters of interest can be written as ratios of expectations. The main approach to construct confidence intervals for such parameters is the delta method. However, this asymptotic procedure yields intervals that may…

Calculating a Monte Carlo standard error (MCSE) is an important step in the statistical analysis of the simulation output obtained from a Markov chain Monte Carlo experiment. An MCSE is usually based on an estimate of the variance of the…

We study the problem of robustly estimating the mean or location parameter without moment assumptions. We show that for a large class of symmetric distributions, the same error as in the Gaussian setting can be achieved efficiently. The…

In this article, we derive an explicit formula for computing confidence interval for the mean of a bounded random variable. Moreover, we have developed multistage point estimation methods for estimating the mean value with prescribed…

We re-investigate the asymptotic properties of the traditional OLS (pooled) estimator, $\hat{\beta} _P$, in the context of cluster dependence. The present study considers various scenarios under various restrictions on the cluster sizes and…

We evaluate numerically-precise Monte Carlo (MC), Quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) and Randomised Quasi-Monte Carlo (RQMC) methods for computing probabilistic reachability in hybrid systems with random parameters. Computing reachability probability…

In this work, we provide a refinement of the selective CLT result of Tian and Taylor (2015), which allows for selective inference in non-parametric settings by adjusting for the asymptotic Gaussian limit for selection. Under some regularity…

A difficulty in MSE estimation occurs because we do not specify a full distribution for the survey weights. This obfuscates the use of fully parametric bootstrap procedures. To overcome this challenge, we develop a novel MSE estimator. We…