相关论文: MCMC Confidence Intervals and Biases

Any supervised machine learning analysis is required to provide an estimate of the out-of-sample predictive performance. However, it is imperative to also provide a quantification of the uncertainty of this performance in the form of a…

One of the major goals of future Cosmic Microwave Background measurements is the accurate determination of the effective number of neutrinos $N_{\rm eff}$. Reaching an experimental sensitivity of $\Delta N_{\rm eff} = 0.013$ could indeed…

The Chebyshev or $\ell_{\infty}$ estimator is an unconventional alternative to the ordinary least squares in solving linear regressions. It is defined as the minimizer of the $\ell_{\infty}$ objective function \begin{align*}…

In this paper, we study the mesoscopic fluctuations at edges of orthogonal polynomial ensembles with both continuous and discrete measures. Our main result is a Central limit Theorem (CLT) for linear statistics at mesoscopic scales. We show…

We study the underdamped Langevin diffusion when the log of the target distribution is smooth and strongly concave. We present a MCMC algorithm based on its discretization and show that it achieves $\varepsilon$ error (in 2-Wasserstein…

Quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) methods for estimating integrals are attractive since the resulting estimators typically converge at a faster rate than pseudo-random Monte Carlo. However, they can be difficult to set up on arbitrary posterior…

Suppose one has a collection of parameters indexed by a (possibly infinite dimensional) set. Given data generated from some distribution, the objective is to estimate the maximal parameter in this collection evaluated at this distribution.…

We obtain large deviations estimates for both sequential and random compositions of intermittent maps. We also address the question of whether or not centering is necessary for the quenched central limit theorems (CLT) obtained by Nicol,…

In state space models, smoothing refers to the task of estimating a latent stochastic process given noisy measurements related to the process. We propose an unbiased estimator of smoothing expectations. The lack-of-bias property has…

We have made a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) analysis of primordial non-Gaussianity (f_NL) using the WMAP bispectrum and power spectrum. In our analysis, we have simultaneously constrained f_NL and cosmological parameters so that the…

This paper considers the problem of variable selection allowing for parameter instability. It distinguishes between signal and pseudo-signal variables that are correlated with the target variable, and noise variables that are not, and…

The estimation of mutation probabilities and relative fitnesses in fluctuation analysis is based on the unrealistic hypothesis that the single-cell times to division are exponentially distributed. Using the classical Luria-Delbr\"{u}ck…

We show that the abstract and conclusion of Hansen's {\it Econometrica} paper, \cite{Hansen22}, entitled a modern Gauss-Markov theorem (MGMT), obscures a material fact, which in turn can confuse students. The MGMT places ordinary least…

Portnoy (2019) considered the problem of constructing an optimal confidence interval for the mean based on a single observation $\, X \sim {\cal{N}}(\mu , \, \sigma^2) \,$. Here we extend this result to obtaining 1-sample confidence…

We present convergence and error estimates of the time-discrete consensus-based optimization(CBO) algorithms proposed in [arXiv:1909.09249] for general nonconvex functions. In authors' recent work [arxiv: 1910.08239], rigorous error…

A key quantity of interest in Bayesian inference are expectations of functions with respect to a posterior distribution. Markov Chain Monte Carlo is a fundamental tool to consistently compute these expectations via averaging samples drawn…

Establishing central limit theorems (CLTs) for ergodic averages of Markov chains is a fundamental problem in probability and its applications. Since the seminal work~\cite{MR834478}, a vast literature has emerged on the sufficient…

We study sample covariance matrices arising from multi-level components of variance. Thus, let $ B_n=\frac{1}{N}\sum_{j=1}^NT_{j}^{1/2}x_jx_j^TT_{j}^{1/2}$, where $x_j\in R^n$ are i.i.d. standard Gaussian, and…

We investigate the accuracy of the two most common estimators for the maximum expected value of a general set of random variables: a generalization of the maximum sample average, and cross validation. No unbiased estimator exists and we…

We consider learning methods based on the regularization of a convex empirical risk by a squared Hilbertian norm, a setting that includes linear predictors and non-linear predictors through positive-definite kernels. In order to go beyond…