相关论文: MCMC Confidence Intervals and Biases

Small sample sizes in clinical studies arises from factors such as reduced costs, limited subject availability, and the rarity of studied conditions. This creates challenges for accurately calculating confidence intervals (CIs) using the…

Performing numerical integration when the integrand itself cannot be evaluated point-wise is a challenging task that arises in statistical analysis, notably in Bayesian inference for models with intractable likelihood functions. Markov…

We establish a systematic framework of unbiased quantum sampling and estimation protocols for the classical Gibbs expectation. This framework generalizes existing approaches to the partition function estimation and has broader applications…

Consider a linear regression model with n-dimensional response vector, regression parameter \beta = (\beta_1, ..., \beta_p) and independent and identically N(0, \sigma^2) distributed errors. Suppose that the parameter of interest is \theta…

In this article, we establish a near-optimal convergence rate for the CLT of linear eigenvalue statistics of Wigner matrices, in Kolmogorov-Smirnov distance. For all test functions $f\in C^5(\mathbb R)$, we show that the convergence rate is…

For $k,m,n\in \mathbb{N}$, we consider $n^k\times n^k$ random matrices of the form $$ \mathcal{M}_{n,m,k}(\mathbf{y})=\sum_{\alpha=1}^m\tau_\alpha {Y_\alpha}Y_\alpha^T,\quad…

Many problems in machine learning and statistics involve nested expectations and thus do not permit conventional Monte Carlo (MC) estimation. For such problems, one must nest estimators, such that terms in an outer estimator themselves…

We present a novel and easy-to-use method for calibrating error-rate based confidence intervals to evidence-based support intervals. Support intervals are obtained from inverting Bayes factors based on a parameter estimate and its standard…

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a simulation method commonly used for estimating expectations with respect to a given distribution. We consider estimating the covariance matrix of the asymptotic multivariate normal distribution of a…

Under standard regularity assumptions, we provide simple approximations for specific classes of fiducial and confidence distributions and discuss their connections with objective Bayesian posteriors. For a real parameter the approximations…

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations are commonly employed for estimating features of a target distribution, particularly for Bayesian inference. A fundamental challenge is determining when these simulations should stop. We consider…

Randomized quasi-Monte Carlo (RQMC) methods estimate the mean of a random variable by sampling an integrand at $n$ equidistributed points. For scrambled digital nets, the resulting variance is typically $\tilde O(n^{-\theta})$ where…

In this note we introduce an estimate for the marginal likelihood associated to hidden Markov models (HMMs) using sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) approximations of the generalized two-filter smoothing decomposition (Briers, 2010). This…

Although a few methods have been developed recently for building confidence intervals after model selection, how to construct confidence sets for joint post-selection inference is still an open question. In this paper, we develop a new…

Confidence limits are common place in physics analysis. Great care must be taken in their calculation and use, especially in cases of limited statistics when often one-sided limits are quoted. In order to estimate the stability of the…

In the following article we consider the time-stability associated to the sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) estimate of the backward interpretation of Feynman-Kac Formulae. This is particularly of interest in the context of performing smoothing…

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) provides asymptotically consistent estimates of intractable posterior expectations as the number of iterations tends to infinity. However, in large data applications, MCMC can be computationally expensive per…

We propose a generic Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to speed up computations for datasets with many observations. A key feature of our approach is the use of the highly efficient difference estimator from the survey sampling…

Monte Carlo methods are used to approximate the means, $\mu$, of random variables $Y$, whose distributions are not known explicitly. The key idea is that the average of a random sample, $Y_1, ..., Y_n$, tends to $\mu$ as $n$ tends to…

Using concentration inequalities, we give non-asymptotic confidence intervals for estimates obtained by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations, when using the approximation $\mathbb{E}_{\pi} f\approx (1/(N-t_0))\cdot \sum_{i=t_0+1}^N…