相关论文: MCMC Confidence Intervals and Biases

We establish some new non-asymptotical lower bounds for deviation of regular unbiased estimation of unknown parameter from its true value in different norms, alike the classical Rao-Kramer's inequality. We show that if the new norm is…

Inference for continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) becomes challenging when the process is only observed at discrete time points. The exact likelihood is intractable, and existing methods often struggle even in medium-dimensional…

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods have become a cornerstone of many modern scientific analyses by providing a straightforward approach to numerically estimate uncertainties in the parameters of a model using a sequence of random…

Recently, Kabaila and Wijethunga assessed the performance of a confidence interval centred on a bootstrap smoothed estimator, with width proportional to an estimator of Efron's delta method approximation to the standard deviation of this…

In Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations, the thermal equilibria quantities are estimated by ensemble average over a sample set containing a large number of correlated samples. These samples are selected in accordance with the…

After performing a randomized experiment, researchers often use ordinary-least squares (OLS) regression to adjust for baseline covariates when estimating the average treatment effect. It is widely known that the resulting confidence…

We develop a central limit theorem (CLT) for a non-parametric estimator of the transition matrices in controlled Markov chains (CMCs) with finite state-action spaces. Our results establish precise conditions on the logging policy under…

Practical or scientific considerations often lead to selecting a subset of parameters as ``important.'' Inferences about those parameters often are based on the same data used to select them in the first place. That can make the reported…

In this article, we revisit the question of fluctuations of linear statistics of beta ensembles in the single cut and non-critical regime for general potentials $V$ under mild regularity and growth assumptions. Our main objective is to…

Confidence intervals are a popular way to visualize and analyze data distributions. Unlike p-values, they can convey information both about statistical significance as well as effect size. However, very little work exists on applying…

Background: Although the missing covariate indicator method (MCIM) has been shown to be biased under extreme conditions, the degree and determinants of bias have not been formally assessed. We derived the formula for the relative bias in…

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) produces a correlated sample for estimating expectations with respect to a target distribution. A fundamental question is when should sampling stop so that we have good estimates of the desired quantities?…

It is well known that central order statistics exhibit a central limit behavior and converge to a Gaussian distribution as the sample size grows. This paper strengthens this known result by establishing an entropic version of the CLT that…

In the recent paper [5], a Bayesian approach for constructing confidence intervals in monotone regression problems is proposed, based on credible intervals. We view this method from a frequentist point of view, and show that it corresponds…

We consider the problem of constructing honest confidence intervals (CIs) for a scalar parameter of interest, such as the regression discontinuity parameter, in nonparametric regression based on kernel or local polynomial estimators. To…

This work provides tight upper- and lower-bounds for the problem of mean estimation under $\epsilon$-differential privacy in the local model, when the input is composed of $n$ i.i.d. drawn samples from a normal distribution with variance…

By employing various empirical estimators for the Mutual Information (MI) measure, we calculate and compare the estimates and their confidence intervals for both normal and non-normal bivariate data samples. We find that certain nonlinear…

Several uncertainty estimation methods have been recently proposed for machine translation evaluation. While these methods can provide a useful indication of when not to trust model predictions, we show in this paper that the majority of…

For many causal effect parameters of interest, doubly robust machine learning (DRML) estimators $\hat{\psi}_{1}$ are the state-of-the-art, incorporating the good prediction performance of machine learning; the decreased bias of doubly…

We consider a linear regression model with regression parameter beta =(beta_1, ..., beta_p) and independent and identically N(0, sigma^2)distributed errors. Suppose that the parameter of interest is theta = a^T beta where a is a specified…