相关论文: MCMC Confidence Intervals and Biases
Recent advances in machine learning have significantly improved prediction accuracy in various applications. However, ensuring the calibration of probabilistic predictions remains a significant challenge. Despite efforts to enhance model…
A new method of estimating population linear spectral statistics from high-dimensional data is introduced. When the dimension $d$ grows with the sample size $n$ such that $\frac{d}{n} \to c>0$, the proposed method is the first with proven…
Markov chain Monte Carlo(MCMC) is a popular approach to sample from high dimensional distributions, and the asymptotic variance is a commonly used criterion to evaluate the performance. While most popular MCMC algorithms are reversible,…
In this paper, we study the problem of distributed mean estimation with 1-bit communication constraints. We propose a mean estimator that is based on (randomized and sequentially-chosen) interval queries, whose 1-bit outcome indicates…
Many simulation problems require the estimation of a ratio of two expectations. In recent years Monte Carlo estimators have been proposed that can estimate such ratios without bias. We investigate the theoretical properties of such…
The problem of linear predictions has been extensively studied for the past century under pretty generalized frameworks. Recent advances in the robust statistics literature allow us to analyze robust versions of classical linear models…
Constructing confidence intervals for the coefficients of high-dimensional sparse linear models remains a challenge, mainly because of the complicated limiting distributions of the widely used estimators, such as the lasso. Several methods…
In this paper, we study fluctuations of conditionally centered statistics of the form $$N^{-1/2}\sum_{i=1}^N c_i(g(\sigma_i)-\mathbb{E}_N[g(\sigma_i)|\sigma_j,j\neq i])$$ where $(\sigma_1,\ldots ,\sigma_N)$ are sampled from a dependent…
This paper derives confidence intervals (CI) and time-uniform confidence sequences (CS) for the classical problem of estimating an unknown mean from bounded observations. We present a general approach for deriving concentration bounds, that…
In this note, we derive bounds on the median bias of univariate M-estimators under mild regularity conditions. These requirements are not sufficient to imply convergence in distribution of the M-estimators. We also discuss median bias of…
When evaluating and comparing models using leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV), the uncertainty of the estimate is typically assessed using the variance of the sampling distribution. Considering the uncertainty is important, as the…
Assume that one is interested in estimating an average treatment effect (ATE), equal to a weighted average of $S$ conditional average treatment effects (CATEs). One has unbiased estimators of the CATEs. One could just average the CATE…
A symbolic method is discussed which can be used to obtain the asymptotic bias and variance to order $O(1/n)$ for estimators in stationary time series. Using this method the bias to $O(1/n)$ of the Burg estimator in AR(1) and AR(2) models…
The m-out-of-n bootstrap, originally proposed by Bickel, Gotze, and Zwet (1992), approximates the distribution of a statistic by repeatedly drawing m subsamples (with m much smaller than n) without replacement from an original sample of…
Central limit theorems (CLTs) have a long history in probability and statistics. They play a fundamental role in constructing valid statistical inference procedures. Over the last century, various techniques have been developed in…
Bootstrap smoothed (bagged) parameter estimators have been proposed as an improvement on estimators found after preliminary data-based model selection. The key result of Efron (2014) is a very convenient and widely applicable formula for a…
The constrained Cramer-Rao bound (CCRB) is a lower bound on the mean-squared-error (MSE) of estimators that satisfy some unbiasedness conditions. Although the CCRB unbiasedness conditions are satisfied asymptotically by the constrained…
The empirical Orlicz norm based on a random sample is defined as a natural estimator of the Orlicz norm of a univariate probability distribution. A law of large numbers is derived under minimal assumptions. The latter extends readily to a…
What, if anything, should a frequentist say about a single realized confidence interval (CI) and its chance of having covered the parameter? Jerzy Neyman's original answer was to refuse any nondegenerate probability for coverage ex post…
We develop a general theory of omitted variable bias for a wide range of common causal parameters, including (but not limited to) averages of potential outcomes, average treatment effects, average causal derivatives, and policy effects from…