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We provide a comprehensive analysis of spot volatility inference in pure-jump semimartingales under two asymptotic settings: fixed-$k$, where each local window uses a fixed number of observations, and large-$k$, where this number grows with…

统计理论 · 数学 2026-01-27 Chengxin Yan , Dachuan Chen , Jia Li

Recently, to account for low-frequency market dynamics, several volatility models, employing high-frequency financial data, have been developed. However, in financial markets, we often observe that financial volatility processes depend on…

应用统计 · 统计学 2021-03-01 Dohyun Chun , Donggyu Kim

We study the temporal fluctuations in time-dependent stock prices (both individual and composite) as a stochastic phenomenon using general techniques and methods of nonequilibrium statistical mechanics. In particular, we analyze stock price…

物理与社会 · 物理学 2008-12-02 M. Constantin , S. Das Sarma

Spatial heteroskedasticity refers to stochastically changing variances and covariances in space. Such features have been observed in, for example, air pollution and vegetation data. We study how volatility modulated moving averages can…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-05-20 Michele Nguyen , Almut E. D. Veraart

In this paper, we consider a one-dimensional diffusion process with jumps driven by a Hawkes process. We are interested in the estimations of the volatility function and of the jump function from discrete high-frequency observations in a…

统计理论 · 数学 2022-04-28 Chiara Amorino , Charlotte Dion , Arnaud Gloter , Sarah Lemler

We introduce a Hawkes-like process and study its scaling limit as the system becomes increasingly endogenous. We derive functional limit theorems for intensity and fluctuations. Then, we introduce a high-frequency model for a price of a…

概率论 · 数学 2018-07-12 Łukasz Treszczotko

The analysis of the intraday dynamics of correlations among high-frequency returns is challenging due to the presence of asynchronous trading and market microstructure noise. Both effects may lead to significant data reduction and may…

交易与市场微观结构 · 定量金融 2019-03-06 Giuseppe Buccheri , Giacomo Bormetti , Fulvio Corsi , Fabrizio Lillo

In Gatheral et al. 2018, first posted in 2014, volatility is characterized by fractional behavior with a Hurst exponent $H < 0.5$, challenging traditional views of volatility dynamics. Gatheral et al. demonstrated this using realized…

统计金融 · 定量金融 2024-09-06 Saad Mouti

We study the volatility of the MIB30-stock-index high-frequency data from November 28, 1994 through September 15, 1995. Our aim is to empirically characterize the volatility random walk in the framework of continuous-time finance. To this…

统计力学 · 物理学 2008-12-02 Marco Raberto , Enrico Scalas , Gianaurelio Cuniberti , Massimo Riani

Given the importance of continuous-time stochastic volatility models to describe the dynamics of interest rates, we propose a goodness-of-fit test for the parametric form of the drift and diffusion functions, based on a marked empirical…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-08-18 Alejandra López-Pérez , Manuel Febrero-Bande , Wenceslao González-Manteiga

This paper considers the problem of testing for the presence of a continuous part in a semimartingale sampled at high frequency. We provide two tests, one where the null hypothesis is that a continuous component is present, the other where…

统计理论 · 数学 2016-08-14 Yacine Aït-Sahalia , Jean Jacod

We define a generalized index of jump activity, propose estimators of that index for a discretely sampled process and derive the estimators' properties. These estimators are applicable despite the presence of Brownian volatility in the…

统计理论 · 数学 2009-08-24 Yacine Aït-Sahalia , Jean Jacod

This paper is devoted to testing for the explosive bubble under time-varying non-stationary volatility. Because the limiting distribution of the seminal Phillips et al. (2011) test depends on the variance function and usually requires a…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2021-11-16 Eiji Kurozumi , Anton Skrobotov , Alexey Tsarev

This paper develops a two-step estimation methodology, which allows us to apply catastrophe theory to stock market returns with time-varying volatility and model stock market crashes. Utilizing high frequency data, we estimate the daily…

统计金融 · 定量金融 2013-05-23 Jozef Barunik , Jiri Kukacka

We take a new look at the problem of disentangling the volatility and jumps processes of daily stock returns. We first provide a computational framework for the univariate stochastic volatility model with Poisson-driven jumps that offers a…

统计金融 · 定量金融 2021-04-30 Angelos Alexopoulos , Petros Dellaportas , Omiros Papaspiliopoulos

We investigate the statistical evidence for the use of `rough' fractional processes with Hurst exponent $H< 0.5$ for the modeling of volatility of financial assets, using a model-free approach. We introduce a non-parametric method for…

统计金融 · 定量金融 2023-07-11 Rama Cont , Purba Das

We measure the influence of different time-scales on the dynamics of financial market data. This is obtained by decomposing financial time series into simple oscillations associated with distinct time-scales. We propose two new time-varying…

统计金融 · 定量金融 2016-11-23 Noemi Nava , Tiziana Di Matteo , Tomaso Aste

The danger of confusing long-range dependence with non-stationarity has been pointed out by many authors. Finding an answer to this difficult question is of importance to model time-series showing trend-like behavior, such as river run-off…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2011-06-08 Olaf Kouamo , Eric Moulines , François Roueff

This work is concerned with tests on structural breaks in the spot volatility process of a general It\^o semimartingale based on discrete observations contaminated with i.i.d. microstructure noise. We construct a consistent test building up…

统计理论 · 数学 2018-09-25 Markus Bibinger , Mehmet Madensoy

We develop and investigate a test for jumps based on high-frequency observations of a fractional process with an additive jump component. The Hurst exponent of the fractional process is unknown. The asymptotic theory under infill…

统计理论 · 数学 2025-04-23 Markus Bibinger , Michael Sonntag