相关论文: Asymptomatic infectives and $R_0$ for COVID
It is well known that the confirmed COVID-19 infection is only a fraction of the true fraction. In this paper we use an artificial neural network to learn the connection between the confirmed infection count, the testing data, and the true…
Monitoring the Covid19 pandemic constitutes a critical societal stake that received considerable research efforts. The intensity of the pandemic on a given territory is efficiently measured by the reproduction number, quantifying the rate…
The COVID-19 pandemic has plagued the world for months. The U.S. has taken measures to counter it. On a daily basis, newly confirmed cases have been reported. In the early days, these numbers showed an increasing trend. Recently, the…
This paper is concerned with a nonlocal dispersal susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic model with Dirichlet boundary condition, where the rates of disease transmission and recovery are assumed to be spatially heterogeneous. We…
In epidemiology, the effective reproduction number $R_e$ is used to characterize the growth rate of an epidemic outbreak. In this paper, we investigate properties of $R_e$ for a modified SEIR model of COVID-19 in the city of Houston, TX…
Repeat asymptomatic testing in order to identify and quarantine infectious individuals has become a widely-used intervention to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission. In some workplaces, and in particular health and social care settings with…
Based on the well known SIR model, this paper develops a model for predicting the number of necessary testings of asymptomatic persons in order to push Reff below 1, thus suppressing an outbreak. The model considers R0, time for obtaining a…
The study carries out predictive modeling based on publicly available COVID-19 data for the duration 01 April to 20 June 2020 pertaining to India and five of its most infected states: Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Delhi, Gujarat, and Rajasthan…
In this study, we investigate a stochastic SIR model with media effects. The uniqueness and the existence of a global positive solution are studied. The sufficient conditions of extinction and persistence of the disease are established. We…
The World Health Organisation (WHO) has very strongly recommended testing and isolation as a strategy for controlling the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. The goal of this paper is to quantify the effects of detection and isolation in formal…
We consider estimation procedures which are recursive in the sense that each successive estimator is obtained from the previous one by a simple adjustment. The model considered in the paper is very general as we do not impose any…
We consider the $SEIRS$ epidemiology model with such features of the COVID-19 outbreak as: abundance of unidentified infected individuals, limited time of immunity and a possibility of vaccination. Within a compartmental realization of this…
Spatiotemporal modelling of infectious diseases such as COVID-19 involves using a variety of epidemiological metrics such as regional proportion of cases or regional positivity rates. Although observing their changes over time is critical…
Asymptomatic individuals in the context of malarial disease refers to subjects who carry a parasite load but do not show clinical symptoms. A correct understanding of the influence of asymptomatic individuals on transmission dynamics will…
In order to explore the impact of periodically evolving domain on the transmission of disease, we study a SIS reaction-diffusion model with logistic term on a periodically evolving domain. The basic reproduction number ${\mathcal{R}}_0$ is…
Studies about epidemic modelling have been conducted since before 19th century. Both deterministic and stochastiic model were used to capture the dynamic of infection in the population. The purpose of this project is to investigate the…
In this report we fit a semi-mechanistic Bayesian hierarchical model to describe the Mexican COVID-19 epidemic. We obtain two epidemiological measures: the number of infections and the reproduction number. Estimations are based on death…
The COVID-19 pandemic has emerged as a global public health crisis. To make decisions about mitigation strategies and to understand the disease dynamics, policy makers and epidemiologists must know how the disease is spreading in their…
Sexually transmitted infections (STIs) continue to present a complex and costly challenge to public health programs. The preferences and social dynamics of a population can have a large impact on the course of an outbreak as well as the…
Since November 6$^{\mathrm{th}}$, 2020, Italian regions have been classified according to four levels, corresponding to specific risk scenarios, for which specific restrictive measures have been foreseen. By analyzing the time evolution of…