相关论文: Asymptomatic infectives and $R_0$ for COVID

We present a compartmental SEIAR model of epidemic spread as a generalization of the SEIR model. We believe that the asymptomatic infectious cohort is an omitted part of the understanding of the epidemic dynamics of disease COVID-19. We…

The reproductive number R_0 (and its value after initial disease emergence R) has long been used to predict the likelihood of pathogen invasion, to gauge the potential severity of an epidemic, and to set policy around interventions.…

The basic reproduction number, $R_0$ is an important and widely used concept in the study of infectious diseases. We briefly review the recent trend of calculating the average of various $R_0$ estimates in systematic reviews aimed at…

One of the key indicators used in tracking the evolution of an infectious disease isthe reproduction number. This quantity is usually computed using the reportednumber of cases, but ignoring that many more individuals may be infected…

Many infectious diseases can lead to re-infection. We examined the relationship between the prevalence of repeat infection and the basic reproductive number (R0). First we solved a generic, deterministic compartmental model of re-infection…

In this paper, we provide a straightforward approach to defining and deriving the key epidemiological quantity, the basic reproduction number, $R_0$, for Markovian epidemics in structured populations. The methodology derived is applicable…

This paper provides a mathematical model to show that the incorrect estimation of r, the fraction of asymptomatic COVID-19 carriers in the general population, can account for much of the world's failure to contain the pandemic in its early…

The correct evaluation of the reproductive number $R$ for COVID-19 -- which characterizes the average number of secondary cases generated by each typical primary case -- is central in the quantification of the potential scope of the…

Basic and instantaneous reproduction numbers, "R" _"0" and "R" _"t" , are important metrics to assess progress of an epidemic and effectiveness of preventative interventions undertaken, and also to estimate coverage needed for vaccination.…

OBJECTIVES: Estimates of the basic reproduction number (R0) of COVID-19 vary across countries. This paper aims to characterise the spatial variability in R0 across the first six months of the global COVID-19 outbreak, and to explore social…

This paper proposes a structural econometric approach to estimating the basic reproduction number ($\mathcal{R}_{0}$) of Covid-19. This approach identifies $\mathcal{R}_{0}$ in a panel regression model by filtering out the effects of…

The basic reproductive number -- $R_0$ -- is one of the most common and most commonly misapplied numbers in public health. Although often used to compare outbreaks and forecast pandemic risk, this single number belies the complexity that…

When an infectious disease strikes a population, the number of newly reported cases is often the only available information that one can obtain during early stages of the outbreak. An important goal of early outbreak analysis is to obtain a…

There is increasing evidence that one of the most difficult problems in trying to control the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic is the presence of a large cohort of asymptomatic infectives. We develop a SIR-type model taking into account the…

The COVID-19 epidemic has been spreading around the world for nearly three years, and asymptomatic infections have exacerbated the spread of the epidemic. To evaluate the role of asymptomatic infections in the spread of the epidemic, we…

What role do asymptomatically infected individuals play in the transmission dynamics? There are many diseases, such as norovirus and influenza, where some infected hosts show symptoms of the disease while others are asymptomatically…

A great issue of discussion of an infectious disease is its basic reproduction number R0, which provides an estimation of the contagiousness of the disease. When R0 > 1, the disease spread will potentially lead to an outbreak, such that of…

To strengthen inferences meta analyses are commonly used to summarize information from a set of independent studies. In some cases, though, the data may not satisfy the assumptions underlying the meta analysis. Using three Bayesian methods…

When controlling an emerging outbreak of an infectious disease it is essential to know the key epidemiological parameters, such as the basic reproduction number $R_0$ and the control effort required to prevent a large outbreak. These…

The aim of this study is to propose a modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model that describes the behaviour of symptomatic, asymptomatic and hospitalized patients of COVID-19 epidemic, including the effect of demographic…