相关论文: Asymptomatic infectives and $R_0$ for COVID

In this paper, we consider a discrete-time stochastic SIR model, where the transmission rate and the true number of infectious individuals are random and unobservable. An advantage of this model is that it permits us to account for random…

The presence of a large number of infected individuals with few or no symptoms is an important epidemiological difficulty and the main mathematical feature of COVID-19. The A-SIR model, i.e. a SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) model with a…

Aim of this manuscript is to show a simple method to infer the time-course of new COVID-19 infections (the most important information in order to establish the effect of containment strategies) from available aggregated data, such as number…

Leading up to August 2020, COVID-19 has spread to almost every country in the world, causing millions of infected and hundreds of thousands of deaths. In this paper, we first verify the assumption that clinical variables could have…

Studies on how to model the interplay between diseases and behavioral responses (so-called coupled disease-behavior interaction) have attracted increasing attention. Owing to the lack of obvious clinical evidence of diseases, or the…

We consider a family of periodic SEIRS epidemic models with a fairly general incidence rate and it is shown the basic reproduction number determines the global dynamics of the models and it is a threshold parameter for persistence.…

The surprisingly mercurial Covid-19 pandemic has highlighted the need to not only accelerate research on infectious disease, but to also study them using novel techniques and perspectives. A major contributor to the difficulty of containing…

We discuss the criticality in the stochastic SIR model for infectious diseases. We adopt the path-integral formalism for the propagation of infections among susceptible, infectious, and removed individuals, and perform the perturbative and…

The recent outbreak of a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) has quickly evolved into a global health crisis. The transmission potential of 2019-nCoV has been modelled and studied in several recent research works. The key factors such as the…

This study examines the effect of a partially protective vaccine on COVID-19 infection with the original and mutant virus with the help of a deterministic mathematical model developed. The model we developed consists of five compartments…

The world is still fighting against COVID-19, which has been lasting for more than a year. Till date, it has been a greatest challenge to human beings in fighting against COVID-19 since, the pathogen SARS-COV-2 that causes COVID-19 has…

We introduce an extended SEIR infectious disease model with data assimilation for the study of the spread of COVID-19. In this framework, undetected asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic cases are taken into account, and the impact of their…

We consider a single outbreak susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model and corresponding estimation procedures for the effective reproductive number $\mathcal{R}(t)$. We discuss the estimation of the underlying SIR parameters with a…

When an infectious disease propagates throughout society, the incidence function may rise at first due to an increase in pathogenicity and then decrease due to inhibitory effects until it reaches saturation. Effective vaccination and…

We propose a compartmental mathematical model for the spread of the COVID-19 disease with special focus on the transmissibility of super-spreaders individuals. We compute the basic reproduction number threshold, we study the local stability…

We study a multi-group SAIRS-type epidemic model with vaccination. The role of asymptomatic and symptomatic infectious individuals is explicitly considered in the transmission pattern of the disease among the groups in which the population…

We consider the pandemic spreading of COVID-19 for some selected countries after the outbreak of the coronavirus in Wuhan City, China. We estimated the infection rate and the initial infected individuals of COVID-19 by using the officially…

We develop a statistical model for the testing of disease prevalence in a population. The model assumes a binary test result, positive or negative, but allows for biases in sample selection and both type I (false positive) and type II…

We investigate the global dynamics of a general Kermack-McKendrick-type epidemic model formulated in terms of a system of renewal equations. Specifically, we consider a renewal model for which both the force of infection and the infected…

COVID-19 pandemic is one of the major disasters that humanity has ever faced. In this paper, we try to model the effect of vaccination in controlling the pandemic, particularly in context to the third wave which is predicted to hit…