相关论文: Developing new techniques for obtaining the thresh…

Recently, emerging epidemics like COVID-19 and its variants require predictive mathematical models to implement suitable responses in order to limit their negative and profound impact on society. The SIR (Susceptible-InfectedRemoved) system…

This paper considers a general stochastic SIR epidemic model driven by a multidimensional Levy jump process with heavy tailed increments and possible correlation between noise components. In this framework, we derive new sufficient…

This paper presents an SIR epidemic model with two different types of perturbations: white and L\'evy noises. We consecrate to develop a mathematical method to obtain the asymptotic properties of the perturbed model. We use the comparison…

This paper studies the spread dynamics of a stochastic SIRS epidemic model with nonlinear incidence and varying population size, which is formulated as a piecewise deterministic Markov process. A threshold dynamic determined by the basic…

A stochastic SIR epidemic model taking into account the heterogeneity of the spatial environment is constructed. The deterministic model is given by a partial differential equation and the stochastic one by a space-time jump Markov process.…

Pairwise models are used widely to model epidemic spread on networks. These include the modelling of susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) epidemics on regular networks and extensions to SIS dynamics and contact tracing on more exotic networks…

This paper provides a first attempt to incorporate the massive discontinuous changes in the spatio-temporal dynamics of epidemics. Namely, we propose an extended class of epidemic models, governed by coupled stochastic semilinear partial…

This paper considers a stochastic SIR (susceptible$\to$infective$\to$removed) epidemic model in which individuals may make infectious contacts in two ways, both within `households' (which for ease of exposition are assumed to have equal…

We propose and study a shifted SICA epidemic model, extending the one of Silva and Torres (2017) to the stochastic setting driven by both Brownian motion processes and jump L\'evy noise. L\'evy noise perturbations are usually ignored by…

The spread of an epidemic process is considered in the context of a spatial SIR stochastic model that includes a parameter $0\le p\le 1$ that assigns weights $p$ and $1- p$ to global and local infective contacts respectively. The model was…

We consider a stochastic process driven by a diffusion and jumps. We devise a technique, which is based on a discrete record of observations, for identifying the times when jumps larger than a suitably defined threshold occurred. The…

We provide asymptotic results and develop high frequency statistical procedures for time-changed L\'evy processes sampled at random instants. The sampling times are given by first hitting times of symmetric barriers whose distance with…

Epidemic models currently play a central role in our attempts to understand and control infectious diseases. Here, we derive a model for the diffusion limit of stochastic susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) epidemic dynamics on a…

In this paper, we analyze dynamic switching networks, wherein the networks switch arbitrarily among a set of topologies. For this class of dynamic networks, we derive an epidemic threshold, considering the SIS epidemic model. First, an…

The rampant phenomenon of overpopulation and the remarkable increase of human movements over the last decade have caused an aggressive re-emergence of dengue fever, which made it the subject of several research fields. In this regard,…

The impact of spatial structure on the spread of an epidemic is an important issue in the propagation of infectious diseases. Recent studies, both deterministic and stochastic, have made it possible to understand the importance of the…

This paper investigates asymptotic behavior of a stochastic SIR epidemic model, which is a system with degenerate diffusion. It gives sufficient conditions that are very close to the necessary conditions for the permanence. In addition,…

Existing results for the estimation of the L\'evy measure are mostly limited to the onedimensional setting. We apply the spectral method to multidimensional L\'evy processes in order to construct a nonparametric estimator for the…

We consider a general d-dimensional Levy-type process with killing. Combining the classical Dyson series approach with a novel polynomial expansion of the generator A(t) of the Levy-type process, we derive a family of asymptotic…

This paper focuses on the analysis of a stochastic SAIRS-type epidemic model that explicitly incorporates the roles of asymptomatic and symptomatic infectious individuals in disease transmission dynamics. Asymptomatic carriers, often…