相关论文: Developing new techniques for obtaining the thresh…
We investigate the SIR epidemic on a dynamic inhomogeneous Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi random graph, in which vertices are of one of $k$ types and in which edges appear and disappear independently of each other. We establish a functional law of large…
Understanding infectious disease spread remains a critical public health challenge, particularly given the interplay between household dynamics and community transmission patterns. Traditional epidemiological models often oversimplify these…
This paper is concerned with a stochastic model for the spread of an SEIR (susceptible -> exposed (=latent) -> infective -> removed) epidemic with a contact tracing scheme, in which removed individuals may name some of their infectious…
The spread of infectious diseases is a major challenge in our contemporary world, especially after the recent outbreak of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The quarantine strategy is one of the important intervention measures to control…
Networks of contacts capable of spreading infectious diseases are often observed to be highly heterogeneous, with the majority of individuals having fewer contacts than the mean, and a significant minority having relatively very many…
Stochastic infection processes are continuous-time Markov chains on graphs that assign each vertex one of multiple states, such as susceptible, infected, or recovered. Depending on the model, vertices change their state based on random…
We investigate the parameter estimation and prediction of two forms of the stochastic SIR model driven by small L\'{e}vy noise with time-dependent periodic transmission. We present consistency and rate of convergence results for the…
Throughout the course of an epidemic, the rate at which disease spreads varies with behavioral changes, the emergence of new disease variants, and the introduction of mitigation policies. Estimating such changes in transmission rates can…
Network-based models of epidemic spread have become increasingly popular in recent decades. Despite a rich foundation of such models, few low-dimensional systems for modeling SIS-type diseases have been proposed that manage to capture the…
Threshold theorem is probably the most important development of mathematical epidemic modelling. Unfortunately, some models may not behave according to the threshold. In this paper, we will focus on the final outcome of SIR model with…
We introduce a stochastic SIR-type partial differential equation model incorporating random diffusion, reinfection, vital dynamics, and a randomly varying transmission rate. For the associated random dynamical system, we prove the existence…
We propose a unified stochastic SIR model driven by L\'{e}vy noise. The model is structural enough to allow for time-dependency, nonlinearity, discontinuity, demography and environmental disturbances. We present concise results on the…
In this paper we present a model describing Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) type epidemics spreading on a dynamic contact network with random link activation and deletion where link ac- tivation can be locally constrained. We use and…
We define and study an open stochastic SIR (Susceptible -- Infected -- Removed) model on a graph in order to describe the spread of an epidemic on a cattle trade network with epidemiological and demographic dynamics occurring over the same…
An ultrametric model of epidemic spread of infections based on the classical SIR model is proposed. Ultrametrics on a set of individuals based on theire hierarchical clustering relativly to the average time of infectious contact is…
We consider a stochastic Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) epidemiological model. Through the use of a normal form coordinate transform, we are able to analytically derive the stochastic center manifold along with the…
This paper focuses on and analyzes realistic SIR models that take stochasticity into account. The proposed systems are applicable to most incidence rates that are used in the literature including the bilinear incidence rate, the…
We approach the development of models and control strategies of susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic processes from the perspective of marked temporal point processes and stochastic optimal control of stochastic differential…
We consider high frequency samples from ergodic L\'evy driven stochastic differential equation (SDE) with drift coefficient $a(x,\alpha)$ and scale coefficient $c(x,\gamma)$ involving unknown parameters $\alpha$ and $\gamma$. We suppose…
The estimation of the L\'{e}vy density, the infinite-dimensional parameter controlling the jump dynamics of a L\'{e}vy process, is considered here under a discrete-sampling scheme. In this setting, the jumps are latent variables, the…