相关论文: Recruitment prediction for multi-centre clinical t…

We introduce a general framework for monitoring, modelling, and predicting the recruitment to multi-centre clinical trials. The work is motivated by overly optimistic and narrow prediction intervals produced by existing time-homogeneous…

Forecasting recruitments is a key component of the monitoring phase of multicenter studies. One of the most popular techniques in this field is the Poisson-Gamma recruitment model, a Bayesian technique built on a doubly stochastic Poisson…

Clinical trials in the modern era are characterized by their complexity and high costs and usually involve hundreds/thousands of patients to be recruited across multiple clinical centres in many countries, as typically a rather large sample…

Accurate forecast of a clinical trial enrollment timeline at the planning phase is of great importance to both corporate strategic planning and trial operational excellence. While predictions of key milestones such as last subject first…

This paper focuses on statistical modelling and prediction of patient recruitment in clinical trials accounting for patients dropout. The recruitment model is based on a Poisson-gamma model introduced by Anisimov and Fedorov (2007), where…

Given progressive developments and demands on clinical trials, accurate enrollment timeline forecasting is increasingly crucial for both strategic decision-making and trial execution excellence. Naive approach assumes flat rates on…

We consider event-driven clinical trials, where the analysis is performed once a pre-determined number of clinical events has been reached. For example, these events could be progression in oncology or a stroke in cardiovascular trials. At…

Design and forecasting of patient enrollment is among the greatest challenges that the clinical research enterprize faces today, as inefficient enrollment can be a major cause of drug development delays. Therefore, the development of the…

Clinical trials are a systematic endeavor to assess the safety and efficacy of new drugs or treatments. Conducting such trials typically demands significant financial investment and meticulous planning, highlighting the need for accurate…

Significant advancements have been made in recent years to optimize patient recruitment for clinical trials, however, improved methods for patient recruitment prediction are needed to support trial site selection and to estimate appropriate…

A non-homogeneous Poisson cluster model is studied, motivated by insurance applications. The Poisson center process which expresses arrival times of claims, triggers off cluster member processes which correspond to number or amount of…

Clinical trials need to recruit a sufficient number of volunteer patients to demonstrate the statistical power of the treatment (e.g., a new drug) in curing a certain disease. Clinical trial recruitment has a significant impact on trial…

Accurate trend forecasting in healthcare time series is essential for planning and resource allocation. This paper proposes a Bayesian framework for predicting oncology demand trends, modeling weekly appointments as a Poisson process with a…

We consider forecasting the latent rate profiles of a time series of inhomogeneous Poisson processes. The work is motivated by operations management of queueing systems, in particular, telephone call centers, where accurate forecasting of…

In Bayesian nonparametric inference, random discrete probability measures are commonly used as priors within hierarchical mixture models for density estimation and for inference on the clustering of the data. Recently, it has been shown…

In this paper, we deal with the problem of calibrating thresholding rules in the setting of Poisson intensity estimation. By using sharp concentration inequalities, oracle inequalities are derived and we establish the optimality of our…

In pre-clinical and medical quality control, it is of interest to assess the stability of the process under monitoring or to validate a current observation using historical control data. Classically, this is done by the application of…

Bounds of the accuracy of the normal approximation to the distribution of a sum of independent random variables are improved under relaxed moment conditions, in particular, under the absence of moments of orders higher than the second.…

We present improved methods for calculating confidence intervals and $p$-values in situations where standard asymptotic approaches fail due to small sample sizes. We apply these techniques to a specific class of statistical model that can…

Consider a measure $\mu_\lambda = \sum_x \xi_x \delta_x$ where the sum is over points $x$ of a Poisson point process of intensity $\lambda$ on a bounded region in $d$-space, and $\xi_x$ is a functional determined by the Poisson points near…