相关论文: The Likelihood of Mixed Hitting Times

We propose threshold diffusion processes as unique solutions to stochastic differential equations with step-function coefficients, and obtain explicit expressions for the conditional Laplace transform of the hitting times and the potential…

In this paper, we compute the Laplace transform of occupation times (of the negative half-line) of spectrally negative L\'evy processes. Our results are extensions of known results for standard Brownian motion and jump-diffusion processes.…

Variational formulas for the Laplace transform of the exit time from an open set of a Hunt process generated by a regular lower bounded semi-Dirichlet form are established. While for symmetric Markov processes, variational formulas are…

The {\alpha}-stable L\'evy process, commonly used to describe L\'evy flight, is characterized by discontinuous jumps and is widely used to model anomalous transport phenomena. In this study, we investigate the associated exit problem and…

We consider the problem of characterising expected hitting times and hitting probabilities for imprecise Markov chains. To this end, we consider three distinct ways in which imprecise Markov chains have been defined in the literature: as…

Given a spectrally negative L\'evy process and independent Poisson observation times, we consider a periodic barrier strategy that pushes the process down to a certain level whenever it is above it. We also consider the versions with…

For a skip-free Markov process on non-negative integers with generator matrix Q, we evaluate the joint Laplace transform of the occupation times before hitting the state n (starting at 0). This Laplace transform has a very straightforward…

Inhomogeneous phase-type (IPH) distributions extend classical phase-type models by allowing transition intensities to vary over time, offering greater flexibility for modeling heavy-tailed or time-dependent absorption phenomena. We focus on…

In this paper, we study the maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters of the multivariate and matrix variate symmetric Laplace distributions through group actions. The multivariate and matrix variate symmetric Laplace distributions…

The estimation of absorption time distributions of Markov jump processes is an important task in various branches of statistics and applied probability. While the time-homogeneous case is classic, the time-inhomogeneous case has recently…

In this note we find a formula for the supremum distribution of spectrally positive or negative L\'evy processes with a broken linear drift. This gives formulas for ruin probabilities in the case when two insurance companies (or two…

We consider irreducible reversible discrete time Markov chains on a finite state space. Mixing times and hitting times are fundamental parameters of the chain. We relate them by showing that the mixing time of the lazy chain is equivalent…

The distribution of the "mixing time" or the "time to stationarity" in a discrete time irreducible Markov chain, starting in state i, can be defined as the number of trials to reach a state sampled from the stationary distribution of the…

For a L\'evy process $X$ on a finite time interval consider the probability that it exceeds some fixed threshold $x>0$ while staying below $x$ at the points of a regular grid. We establish exact asymptotic behavior of this probability as…

In this work we study drawdowns and drawups of general diffusion processes. The drawdown process is defined as the current drop of the process from its running maximum, while the drawup process is defined as the current increase over its…

The systematic collection of longitudinal data is very common in practice, making mixed models widely used. Most developments around these models focus on modeling the mean trajectory of repeated measurements, typically under the assumption…

For a spectrally negative L\'evy process $X$, we study the following distribution: $$ \mathbb{E}_x \left[ \mathrm{e}^{- q \int_0^t \mathbf{1}_{(a,b)} (X_s) \mathrm{d}s } ; X_t \in \mathrm{d}y \right], $$ where $-\infty \leq a < b < \infty$,…

Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and Likelihood Ratio Test (LRT) are widely used methods for estimating the transition probability matrix in Markov chains and identifying significant relationships between transitions, such as equality.…

For a spectrally negative L\'evy process (snLp) $X$, killed according to a rate that is a function $\omega$ of its position, we analyse the exit probability of the one-sided upwards-passage problem. When $\omega$ is strictly positive, this…

The Laplace approximation (LA) has been proposed as a method for approximating the marginal likelihood of statistical models with latent variables. However, the approximate maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) based on the LA are often…