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Numerous studies grounded on Hawkes processes have been carried out in many fields including finance, biology and social network. Hawkes processes form a class of selfexciting simple point processes. In this article, we consider a general…

概率论 · 数学 2025-07-22 Bartholomé Vieille , Rachid Senoussi , Samuel Soubeyrand

The multivariate Hawkes process is a past-dependent point process used to model the relationship of event occurrences between different phenomena.Although the Hawkes process was originally introduced to describe excitation effects, which…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-06-30 Anna Bonnet , Miguel Martinez Herrera , Maxime Sangnier

In the last decade Hawkes processes have received much attention as models for functional connectivity in neural spiking networks and other dynamical systems with a cascade behavior. In this paper we establish a renewal approach for…

概率论 · 数学 2019-06-11 Mads Bonde Raad

We study statistical aspects of state-dependent Hawkes processes, which are an extension of Hawkes processes where a self- and cross-exciting counting process and a state process are fully coupled, interacting with each other. The…

统计金融 · 定量金融 2021-09-17 Maxime Morariu-Patrichi , Mikko S. Pakkanen

The Hawkes model is a past-dependent point process, widely used in various fields for modeling temporal clustering of events. Extending this framework, the multidimensional marked Hawkes process incorporates multiple interacting event types…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-05-20 Anna Bonnet , Charlotte Dion-Blanc , Maya Sadeler-Perrin

Because of their tractability and their natural interpretations in term of market quantities, Hawkes processes are nowadays widely used in high-frequency finance. However, in practice, the statistical estimation results seem to show that…

统计金融 · 定量金融 2015-03-13 Thibault Jaisson , Mathieu Rosenbaum

In this paper, we investigate the asymptotic behavior of nearly unstable Hawkes processes whose regression kernel has $L^1$ norm strictly greater than one and close to one as time goes to infinity. We find that,the scaling size determines…

概率论 · 数学 2026-01-14 Chenguang Liu , Liping Xu , An Zhang

The present paper provides exact mathematical expressions for the high-order moments of spiking activity in a recurrently-connected network of linear Hawkes processes. It extends previous studies that have explored the case of a (linear)…

神经元与认知 · 定量生物学 2019-12-17 Matthieu Gilson , Jean-Pascal Pfister

We introduce a nonlinear modification of the classical Hawkes process, which allows inhibitory couplings between units without restrictions. The resulting system of interacting point processes provides a useful mathematical model for…

概率论 · 数学 2009-11-03 Stefano Cardanobile , Stefan Rotter

Fueled in part by recent applications in neuroscience, the multivariate Hawkes process has become a popular tool for modeling the network of interactions among high-dimensional point process data. While evaluating the uncertainty of the…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-07-16 Xu Wang , Mladen Kolar , Ali Shojaie

The marked Hawkes risk process is a compound point process for which the occurrence and amplitude of past events impact the future. Thanks to its autoregressive properties, it found applications in various fields such as neuosciences,…

概率论 · 数学 2024-09-11 Laure Coutin , Mahmoud Khabou

Modelling and forecasting the occurrence of extreme events is especially difficult when the event process is nonstationary, with changes in both the rate at which extremes occur and the magnitude of the extremes when they occur. We approach…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-05-06 Gordon J. Ross , Dean Markwick

Self-exciting processes of Hawkes type have been used to model various phenomena including earthquakes, neural activities, and views of online videos. Studies of temporal networks have revealed that sequences of social interevent times for…

物理与社会 · 物理学 2015-06-05 Naoki Masuda , Taro Takaguchi , Nobuo Sato , Kazuo Yano

We introduce a class of hybrid marked point processes, which encompasses and extends continuous-time Markov chains and Hawkes processes. While this flexible class amalgamates such existing processes, it also contains novel processes with…

概率论 · 数学 2021-01-06 Maxime Morariu-Patrichi , Mikko S. Pakkanen

Hawkes processes are a self-exciting stochastic process used to describe phenomena whereby past events increase the probability of the occurrence of future events. This work presents a flexible approach for modelling a variant of these,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-08-08 Raiha Browning , Judith Rousseau , Kerrie Mengersen

We generalize multivariate Hawkes processes mainly by including a dependence with respect to the age of the process, i.e. the delay since the last point. Within this class, we investigate the limit behaviour, when n goes to infinity, of a…

概率论 · 数学 2017-03-16 Julien Chevallier

In this paper we fill a gap in the literature by providing exact and explicit expressions for the correlation of general Hawkes processes together with its intensity process. Our methodology relies on the Poisson imbedding representation…

概率论 · 数学 2023-04-06 Caroline Hillairet , Anthony Reveillac

Targeting a better understanding of credit market dynamics, the authors have studied a stochastic model named the Hawkes process. Describing trades arrival times, this kind of model allows for the capture of self-excitement and mutual…

应用统计 · 统计学 2019-02-12 Achraf Bahamou , Maud Doumergue , Philippe Donnat

We present a careful analysis of possible issues on the application of the self-excited Hawkes process to high-frequency financial data. We carefully analyze a set of effects leading to significant biases in the estimation of the…

统计金融 · 定量金融 2014-07-04 Vladimir Filimonov , Didier Sornette

Spatio-temporal Hawkes point processes are a particularly interesting class of stochastic point processes for modeling self-exciting behavior, in which the occurrence of one event increases the probability of other events occurring. These…

统计计算 · 统计学 2025-11-19 Alba Bernabeu , Jorge Mateu