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Multivariate Hawkes Processes (MHPs) are an important class of temporal point processes that have enabled key advances in understanding and predicting social information systems. However, due to their complex modeling of temporal…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-03-02 Maximilian Nickel , Matthew Le

In this paper, we propose a stochastic process, which is a Cox-Ingersoll-Ross process with Hawkes jumps. It can be seen as a generalization of the classical Cox-Ingersoll-Ross process and the classical Hawkes process with exponential…

概率论 · 数学 2014-10-16 Lingjiong Zhu

We consider multi-class systems of interacting nonlinear Hawkes processes modeling several large families of neurons and study their mean field limits. As the total number of neurons goes to infinity we prove that the evolution within each…

概率论 · 数学 2016-10-04 Susanne Ditlevsen , Eva Löcherbach

The Hawkes process and its extensions effectively model self-excitatory phenomena including earthquakes, viral pandemics, financial transactions, neural spike trains and the spread of memes through social networks. The usefulness of these…

应用统计 · 统计学 2020-05-21 Andrew J. Holbrook , Charles E. Loeffler , Seth R. Flaxman , Marc A. Suchard

In this paper we study the number of customers in infinite-server queues with a self-exciting (Hawkes) arrival process. Initially we assume that service requirements are exponentially distributed and that the Hawkes arrival process is of a…

概率论 · 数学 2018-05-02 David Koops , Mayank Saxena , Onno Boxma , Michel Mandjes

We study the asymptotic properties of the solutions of a nonlinear renewal equation. The main contribution of the present article is to provide stability and convergence results around equilibrium solutions, under some local subcritical…

动力系统 · 数学 2025-12-17 Céline Duval , Eric Luçon

We introduce a point process regression model that is applicable to price models and limit order book models. Hawkes type autoregression in the intensity process is generalized to a stochastic regression to covariate processes. We establish…

统计理论 · 数学 2015-12-08 Teppei Ogihara , Nakahiro Yoshida

In this paper we study the frequentist properties of Bayesian approaches in linear high dimensional Hawkes processes in a sparse regime where the number of interaction functions acting on each component of the Hawkes process is much smaller…

统计理论 · 数学 2025-10-29 Judith Rousseau , Vincent Rivoirard , Déborah Sulem

This work focuses on a self-exciting point process defined by a Hawkes-like intensity and a switching mechanism based on a hidden Markov chain. Previous works in such a setting assume constant intensities between consecutive events. We…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-02-07 Timothée Fabre , Ioane Muni Toke

In this paper, we establish general scaling limits for nearly unstable Hawkes processes in a mean-field regime by extending the method introduced by Jaisson and Rosenbaum. Under a mild asymptotic criticality condition on the self-exciting…

概率论 · 数学 2025-01-22 Grégoire Szymanski , Wei Xu

This paper discusses a special class of nonlinear Hawkes processes, where the rate function is the exponential function. We call these processes loglinear Hawkes processes. In the main theorem, we give sufficient conditions for explosion…

Asynchronous events on the continuous time domain, e.g., social media actions and stock transactions, occur frequently in the world. The ability to recognize occurrence patterns of event sequences is crucial to predict which typeof events…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-02-17 Qiang Zhang , Aldo Lipani , Omer Kirnap , Emine Yilmaz

We propose a simulation method for multidimensional Hawkes processes based on superposition theory of point processes. This formulation allows us to design efficient simulations for Hawkes processes with differing exponentially decaying…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-03-14 Kar Wai Lim , Young Lee , Leif Hanlen , Hongbiao Zhao

In the present work, we introduce a general class of mean-field interacting nonlinear Hawkes processes modelling the reciprocal interactions between two neuronal populations, one excitatory and one inhibitory. The model incorporates two…

概率论 · 数学 2021-05-25 Céline Duval , Eric Luçon , Christophe Pouzat

We study a multivariate, non-linear Hawkes process $Z^N$ on a $q$-Erd\H{o}s-R\'{e}nyi-graph with $N$ nodes. Each vertex is either excitatory (probability $p$) or inhibitory (probability $1-p$). If $p\neq\tfrac12$, we take the mean-field…

概率论 · 数学 2023-11-27 Jakob Stiefel

This chapter provides an accessible introduction for point processes, and especially Hawkes processes, for modeling discrete, inter-dependent events over continuous time. We start by reviewing the definitions and the key concepts in point…

机器学习 · 统计学 2017-10-10 Marian-Andrei Rizoiu , Young Lee , Swapnil Mishra , Lexing Xie

We consider a discrete-time version of a Hawkes process defined as a Poisson auto-regressive process whose parameters depend on the past of the trajectory. We allow these parameters to take on negative values, modelling inhibition. More…

概率论 · 数学 2024-02-19 Manon Costa , Pascal Maillard , Anthony Muraro

In this article, we fill a gap in the literature on Hawkes processes. In particular, we derive a CLT for a non linear compound marked Hawkes process. We also provide an upper bound on the convergence rate using the functional 1-Wasserstein…

概率论 · 数学 2026-01-27 Benjamin Massat

In this paper, we build a model for biological neural nets where the activity of the network is described by Hawkes processes having a variable length memory. The particularity of this paper is to deal with an infinite number of components.…

概率论 · 数学 2015-09-18 Pierre Hodara , Eva Löcherbach

The Hawkes process is a versatile stochastic model for point patterns that exhibit self-excitation, that is, the property that an event occurrence increases the rate of occurrence for some period of time in the future. We present a Bayesian…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-12-01 Hyotae Kim , Athanasios Kottas