相关论文: The probability of the Alabama paradox

I study the product of independent identically distributed $D\times D$ random probability matrices. Some exact asymptotic results are obtained. I find that both the left and the right products approach exponentially to a probability…

The so-called Simpson's "paradox", or Yule-Simpson (YS) effect, occurs in classical statistics when the correlations that are present among different sets of samples are reversed if the sets are combined together, thus ignoring one or more…

Hayes equivalence is defined on monic polynomials over a finite field $\fq$ in terms of the prescribed leading coefficients and the residue classes modulo a given monic polynomial $Q$. We study the distribution of the number of zeros in a…

We recall the directed graph of _juggling states_, closed walks within which give juggling patterns, as studied by Ron Graham in [w/Chung, w/Butler]. Various random walks in this graph have been studied before by several authors, and their…

Consider the following prediction problem. Assume that there is a block box that produces bits according to some unknown computable distribution on the binary tree. We know first $n$ bits $x_1 x_2 \ldots x_n$. We want to know the…

We study pairs and m--tuples of compositions of a positive integer n with parts restricted to a subset P of positive integers. We obtain some exact enumeration results for the number of tuples of such compositions having the same number of…

We consider invariant transports of stationary random measures on $\mathbb{R}^d$ and establish natural mixing criteria that guarantee persistence of asymptotic variances. To check our mixing assumptions, which are based on two-point Palm…

The standard voting methods in the United States, plurality and ranked choice (or instant runoff) voting, are susceptible to significant voting failures. These flaws include Condorcet and majority failures as well as monotonicity and…

Simpson's Paradox is a well-known phenomenon in statistical science, where the relationship between the response variable $X$ and a certain explanatory factor of interest $A$ reverses when an additional factor $B_1$ is considered. This…

F\'elix-Medina and Thompson (2004) proposed a variant of link-tracing sampling to estimate the size of a hidden population such as drug users, sexual workers or homeless people. In their variant a sampling frame of sites where the members…

We initiate the study of limit shapes for random permutations avoiding a given pattern. Specifically, for patterns of length 3, we obtain delicate results on the asymptotics of distributions of positions of numbers in the permutations. We…

The Sleeping Beauty problem is a probability riddle with no definite solution for more than two decades and its solution is of great interest in many fields of knowledge. There are two main competing solutions to the problem: the halfer…

We consider the problem of selecting an $n$-member committee made up of one of $m$ candidates from each of $n$ distinct departments. Using an algebraic approach, we analyze positional voting procedures, including the Borda count, as…

That there exist two losing games that can be combined, either by random mixture or by nonrandom alternation, to form a winning game is known as Parrondo's paradox. We establish a strong law of large numbers and a central limit theorem for…

We study semiorders induced by points drawn from a uniform random distribution. Of particular interest in this paper are the probabilities of generating specific semiorders and the equivalence classes they produce. We present a method for…

We analyze theoretical properties of the hybrid test for superior predictability. We demonstrate with a simple example that the test may not be pointwise asymptotically of level $\alpha$ at commonly used significance levels and may lead to…

We ask to what extent an isolated quantum system can eventually "contract" to be contained within a given Hilbert subspace. We do this by starting with an initial random state, considering the probability that all the particles will be…

Well known Simpson's paradox is puzzling and surprising for many, especially for the empirical researchers and users of statistics. However there is no surprise as far as mathematical details are concerned. A lot more is written about the…

For a finite random graph, we defined a simple model of statistical mechanics. We obtain an annealed asymptotic result for the random partition function for this model on finite random graphs as n; the size of the graph is very large. To…

For a regression model, we consider the risk of the maximum likelihood estimator with respect to $\alpha$-divergence, which includes the special cases of Kullback-Leibler divergence, Hellinger distance and $\chi^2$ divergence. The…