相关论文: The probability of the Alabama paradox

We develop a likelihood-based inference for finite-state birth-death processes with composite birth rates, in which multiple distinct mechanisms contribute additively to the total birth intensity. Our main motivating example is an SIS…

When two (possibly different in distribution) continuous-state branching processes with immigration are present, we study the relative frequency of one of them when the total mass is forced to be constant at a dense set of times. This leads…

In [1] a detailed analysis was given of the large-time asymptotics of the total mass of the solution to the parabolic Anderson model on a supercritical Galton-Watson random tree with an i.i.d. random potential whose marginal distribution is…

We consider the asymptotic distribution of a cell in a 2 x ... x 2 contingency table as the fixed marginal totals tend to infinity. The asymptotic order of the cell variance is derived and a useful diagnostic is given for determining…

The discrepant posterior phenomenon (DPP) is a counter-intuitive phenomenon that can frequently occur in a Bayesian analysis of multivariate parameters. It refers to the phenomenon that a parameter estimate based on a posterior is more…

In this paper, the leading term of the asymptotics of the number of possible final positions of a random walk on a directed Hamiltonian metric graph is found. Consideration of such dynamical systems could be motivated by problems of…

Elections involving a very large voter population often lead to outcomes that surprise many. This is particularly important for the elections in which results affect the economy of a sizable population. A better prediction of the true…

We consider ensembles of $N \times N$ Hermitian Wigner matrices, whose entries are (up to the symmetry constraints) independent and identically distributed random variables. Assuming sufficient regularity for the probability density…

This paper studies majorization of high tensor powers of finitely supported probability distributions. Viewing probability distributions as a resource with majorization as a means of transformation corresponds to the resource theory of pure…

We conduct an incentivized experiment on a nationally representative US sample \\ (N=708) to test whether people prefer to avoid ambiguity even when it means choosing dominated options. In contrast to the literature, we find that 55\% of…

We consider the problem of finding a compromise between the opinions of a group of individuals on a number of mutually independent, binary topics. In this paper, we quantify the loss in representativeness that results from requiring the…

We give an asymptotic development of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE), or any other estimator defined implicitly, in a way which involves the limiting behavior of the score and its higher-order derivatives. This development, which is…

We consider the distribution of the binomial probability mass function (pmf) among arithmetic progressions and obtain an average-type theorem. As applications, we consider the possible visits to a kind of sieved sets of integers or lattice…

The probability that two randomly selected phylogenetic trees of the same size are isomorphic is found to be asymptotic to a decreasing exponential modulated by a polynomial factor. The number of symmetrical nodes in a random phylogenetic…

Asymmetric statistical errors arise for experimental results obtained by Maximum Likelihood estimation, in cases where the number of results is finite and the log likelihood function is not a symmetric parabola. This note discusses how…

We prove that under the Jefferson--D'Hondt method of apportionment, given certain distributional assumptions regarding mean rounding residuals, as well as absence of correlations between party vote shares, district sizes (in votes), and…

Specimens are collected from $N$ different sources. Each specimen has probability $p$ of being contaminated, independently of the other specimens. We assume group testing is applicable, namely one can take small portions from several…

The most common way to sample from a probability distribution is to use Monte-Carlo methods. For distributions on a continuous state space, one can find diffusions with the target distribution as equilibrium measure, so that the state of…

We discuss in detail the asymptotic distribution of sample expectiles. First, we show uniform consistency under the assumption of a finite mean. In case of a finite second moment, we show that for expectiles other then the mean, only the…

State space models have long played an important role in signal processing. The Gaussian case can be treated algorithmically using the famous Kalman filter. Similarly since the 1970s there has been extensive application of Hidden Markov…