中文

An unexpected connection between branching processes and optimal stopping

概率论 2007-05-23 v1

摘要

A curious connection exists between the theory of optimal stopping for independent random variables, and branching processes. In particular, for the branching process ZnZ_n with offspring distribution YY, there exists a random variable XX such that the probability P(Zn=0)P(Z_n=0) of extinction of the nnth generation in the branching process equals the value obtained by optimally stopping the sequence X1,...,XnX_1,...,X_n, where these variables are i.i.d distributed as XX. Generalizations to the inhomogeneous and infinite horizon cases are also considered. This correspondence furnishes a simple `stopping rule' method for computing various characteristics of branching processes, including rates of convergence of the nthn^{th} generation's extinction probability to the eventual extinction probability, for the supercritical, critical and subcritical Galton-Watson process. Examples, bounds, further generalizations and a connection to classical prophet inequalities are presented. Throughout, the aim is to show how this unexpected connection can be used to translate methods from one area of applied probability to another, rather than to provide the most general results.

关键词

引用

@article{arxiv.math/0510587,
  title  = {An unexpected connection between branching processes and optimal stopping},
  author = {David Assaf and Larry Goldstein and Ester Samuel-Cahn},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:math/0510587},
  year   = {2007}
}

备注

20 pages