相关论文: Extreme times for volatility processes
We study a stochastic process $X_t$ related to the Bessel and the Rayleigh processes, with various applications in physics, chemistry, biology, economics, finance and other fields. The stochastic differential equation is $dX_t = (nD/X_t) dt…
Fluctuation scaling has been observed universally in a wide variety of phenomena. In time series that describe sequences of events, fluctuation scaling is expressed as power function relationships between the mean and variance of either…
The first-passage time (FPT), defined as the time a random walker takes to reach a target point in a confining domain, is a key quantity in the theory of stochastic processes. Its importance comes from its crucial role to quantify the…
After a quick review of superpositions of OU (supOU) processes, integrated sup\-OU processes and the supOU stochastic volatility model we estimate these processes by using the generalized method of moments (GMM). We show that the GMM…
We study the mean escape time in a market model with stochastic volatility. The process followed by the volatility is the Cox Ingersoll and Ross process which is widely used to model stock price fluctuations. The market model can be…
We investigate a generalized stochastic model with the property known as mean reversion, that is, the tendency to relax towards a historical reference level. Besides this property, the dynamics is driven by multiplicative and additive…
New theorems for the moments of the first passage time of one dimensional nonlinear stochastic processes with an entrance boundary are formulated. This important class of one dimensional stochastic processes results among others from…
Many researchers have investigated first hitting times as models for survival data. First hitting times arise naturally in many types of stochastic processes, ranging from Wiener processes to Markov chains. In a survival context, the state…
We consider the problem of bounding mean first passage times for a class of continuous-time Markov chains that captures stochastic interactions between groups of identical agents. The quantitative analysis of such probabilistic population…
The first passage time (FPT) problem is studied for superstatistical models assuming that the mesoscopic system dynamics is described by a Fokker-Planck equation. We show that all moments of the random intensive parameter associated to the…
We study the first-passage properties of a jump process with constant drift where jump amplitudes and inter-arrival times follow arbitrary light-tailed distributions with smooth densities. Using a mapping to an effective discrete-time…
Mounting empirical evidence suggests that the observed extreme prices within a trading period can provide valuable information about the volatility of the process within that period. In this paper we define a class of stochastic volatility…
Recently a general growth curve including the well known growth equations, such as Malthus, logistic, Bertallanfy, Gompertz, has been studied. We now propose two stochastic formulations of this growth equation. They are obtained starting…
Many studies assume stock prices follow a random process known as geometric Brownian motion. Although approximately correct, this model fails to explain the frequent occurrence of extreme price movements, such as stock market crashes. Using…
For a L\'evy process on the real line, we provide complete criteria for the finiteness of exponential moments of the first passage time into the interval $(r,\infty)$, the sojourn time in the interval $(-\infty,r]$, and the last exit time…
Motivated by the interplay between structural and reduced form credit models, we propose to model the firm value process as a time-changed Brownian motion that may include jumps and stochastic volatility effects, and to study the first…
The process of fluctuations of trajectory observables of stochastic systems is related to processes with independent increments from the risk theory. The first-passage times of variables of the thermodynamics of trajectories, in particular,…
We study the exact asymptotics for the distribution of the first time $\tau_x$ a L\'evy process $X_t$ crosses a negative level $-x$. We prove that $\mathbf P(\tau_x>t)\sim V(x)\mathbf P(X_t\ge 0)/t$ as $t\to\infty$ for a certain function…
We investigate the behavior of L\'{e}vy processes with convolution equivalent L\'{e}vy measures, up to the time of first passage over a high level u. Such problems arise naturally in the context of insurance risk where u is the initial…
Freidlin-Wentzell theory of large deviations can be used to compute the likelihood of extreme or rare events in stochastic dynamical systems via the solution of an optimization problem. The approach gives exponential estimates that often…