相关论文: Blackouts, risk, and fat-tailed distributions

Systems for the generation and distribution of electrical power represents critical infrastructure and, when extreme weather events disrupt such systems, this imposes substantial costs on consumers. These costs can be conceptualized as…

In order to account for large variance and fat tail of damage by natural disaster, we study a simple model by combining distributions of disaster and population/property with their spatial correlation. We assume fat-tailed or power-law…

A popular theory of self-organized criticality relates the critical behavior of driven dissipative systems to that of systems with conservation. In particular, this theory predicts that the stationary density of the abelian sandpile model…

We derive a general formulation of the self-organized branching process by considering sandpile dynamics in an evolving population characterized by "birth" (excitation) and "death" (de-excitation) of active sites ($z=1$). New active sites…

Natural Disasters like hurricanes, floods or earthquakes can damage power grid devices and create cascading blackouts and islands. The nature of failure propagation and extent of damage is dependent on the structural features of the grid,…

The study of loss function distributions is critical to characterize a model's behaviour on a given machine learning problem. For example, while the quality of a model is commonly determined by the average loss assessed on a testing set,…

The well known Sandpile model of self-organized criticality generates avalanches of all length and time scales, without tuning any parameters. In the original models the external drive is randomly selected. Here we investigate a drive which…

The relaxation in complex systems is in general nonexponential. After an initial rapid decay the system relax slowly following a long time tail. In the present paper a sandpile modelation of the relaxation in complex systems is analysed.…

Empirical research with electricity transmission networks reliability data shows that the size of major failures - in terms of energy not supplied (ENS), total loss of power (TLP) or restoration time (RT) - appear to follow a power law…

We show that deterministic systems with strong nonlinearities seem to be more appropriate to model sandpiles than stochastic systems or deterministic systems in which discontinuities are the only nonlinearity. In particular, we are able to…

Retransmission-based failure recovery represents a primary approach in existing communication networks that guarantees data delivery in the presence of channel failures. Recent work has shown that, when data sizes have infinite support,…

Wildfires can severely damage electricity grids leading to long periods of power interruption. Climate change will exacerbate this threat by increasing the frequency of dry climate conditions. Under these climate conditions, human-related…

Just like the degrees of human and animal interaction networks, the distribution of the times between interactions is known to often be right-skewed and fat-tailed. Both these distributions affect epidemic dynamics strongly, but, as we show…

We study the evolution of fast blackout cascades in the model of the Polish (transmission) power grid (2700 nodes and 3504 transmission lines). The cascade is initiated by a sufficiently severe initial contingency tripping. It propagates…

Ex ante forecast outcomes should be interpreted as counterfactuals (potential histories), with errors as the spread between outcomes. Reapplying measurements of uncertainty about the estimation errors of the estimation errors of an…

A sandpile model with stochastic toppling rule is studied. The control parameters and the phase diagram are determined through a MF approach, the subcritical and critical regions are analyzed. The model is found to have some similarities…

We model power grids transporting electricity generated by intermittent renewable sources as complex networks, where line failures can emerge indirectly by noisy power input at the nodes. By combining concepts from statistical physics and…

Using the linearized DC power flow model, we study cascading failures and their spatial and temporal properties in the US Western Interconnect (USWI) power grid. We also introduce the preferential Degree And Distance Attachment (DADA)…

Large-scale power blackouts caused by cascading failure are inflicting enormous socioeconomic costs. We study the problem of cascading link failures in power networks modelled by random geometric graphs from a percolation-based viewpoint.…

We study the fluctuations of a stochastic Maxwell-Lorentz particle model driven by an external field to determine the extent to which fluctuation relations are related to large deviations. Focusing on the total entropy production of this…