相关论文: Blackouts, risk, and fat-tailed distributions
This paper presents a novel data-driven approach for predicting the number of vegetation-related outages that occur in power distribution systems on a monthly basis. In order to develop an approach that is able to successfully fulfill this…
This paper presents a data-driven approach for quantifying the resilience of distribution power grids to extreme weather events using two key metrics: (a) the number of outages and (b) restoration time. The method leverages historical…
One of the first steps to understand and forecast economic downturns is identifying their frequency distribution, but it remains uncertain. This problem is common in phenomena displaying power-law-like distributions. Power laws play a…
Climate extremes, such as hurricanes, combined with large-scale integration of environment-sensitive renewables, could exacerbate the risk of widespread power outages. We introduce a coupled climate-energy model for cascading power outages,…
Electricity networks are vulnerable to weather damage, with severe events often leading to faults and power outages. Timely forecasts of fault occurrences, ranging from nowcasts to several days ahead, can enhance preparedness, support…
Electrical power grids are vulnerable to cascading failures that can lead to large blackouts. Detection and prevention of cascading failures in power grids is impor- tant. Currently, grid operators mainly monitor the state (loading level)…
For a power system operating in the vicinity of the power transfer limit of its transmission system, effect of stochastic fluctuations of power loads can become critical as a sufficiently strong such fluctuation may activate voltage…
Rare events play a crucial role in understanding complex systems. Characterizing and analyzing them in scale-invariant situations is challenging due to strong correlations. In this work, we focus on characterizing the tails of probability…
Network infrastructures are essential for the distribution of resources such as electricity and water. Typical strategies to assess their resilience focus on the impact of a sequence of random or targeted failures of network nodes or links.…
Large-deviations theory deals with tails of probability distributions and the rare events of random processes, for example spreading packets of particles. Mathematically, it concerns the exponential fall-of of the density of thin-tailed…
In this paper, a methodology inspired on bond and site percolation methods is applied to the estimation of the resilience against failures in power grids. Our approach includes vulnerability measures with both dynamical and structural…
Modern societies crucially depend on the robust supply with electric energy. Blackouts of power grids can thus have far reaching consequences. During a blackout, often the failure of a single infrastructure, such as a critical transmission…
During dry and windy seasons, environmental conditions significantly increase the risk of wildfires, exposing power grids to disruptions caused by transmission line failures. Wildfire propagation exacerbates grid vulnerability, potentially…
We develop a discrete-event modeling framework that captures the progression of geophysical systems toward catastrophic failure through sequences of distinct damage events. By representing system evolution as a succession of temporally…
Multiple types of fluctuations impact the collective dynamics of power grids and thus challenge their robust operation. Fluctuations result from processes as different as dynamically changing demands, energy trading, and an increasing share…
Cirillo and Taleb [Nature Phys. 16, 606-613 (2020)] study the size of major epidemics in human history in terms of the number of fatalities. Using the figures from 72 epidemics, from the plague of Athens (429 BC) to the COVID-19…
To disentangle the complex non-stationary dependence structure of precipitation extremes over the entire contiguous U.S., we propose a flexible local approach based on factor copula models. Our sub-asymptotic spatial modeling framework…
This paper examines the use of risk models to predict the timing and location of wildfires caused by electricity infrastructure. Our data include historical ignition and wire-down points triggered by grid infrastructure collected between…
Fatigue failure can be thought by studying the collective motions of defects inside materials instead of focusing on the growth of a pre-existing micro-crack. An experimental study of the statistical distribution of acoustic emissions…
In recent decades, the weather around the world has become more irregular and extreme, often causing large-scale extended power outages. Resilience -- the capability of withstanding, adapting to, and recovering from a large-scale disruption…