相关论文: Blackouts, risk, and fat-tailed distributions

As energy markets begin clearing at sub-hourly rates, their interaction with load control systems becomes a potentially important consideration. A simple model for the control of thermal systems using market-based power distribution…

In the context of communication networks, the framework of stochastic event graphs allows a modeling of control mechanisms induced by the communication protocol and an analysis of its performances. We concentrate on the logarithmic tail…

This paper explores the mechanisms behind extreme financial events, specifically market crashes, by employing the theoretical framework of phase transitions. We focus on endogenous crashes, driven by internal market dynamics, and model…

The smooth operation of supply networks is crucial for the proper functioning of many systems, ranging from biological organisms such as the human blood transport system or plant leaves to man-made systems such as power grids or gas…

In February 2021, an unprecedented winter storm swept across the U.S., severely affecting the Texas power grid, leading to more than 4.5 million customers' electricity service interruption. This paper assesses the load shedding experienced…

I report a new statistical distribution formulated to confront the infamous, long-standing, computational/modeling challenge presented by highly skewed and/or leptokurtic ("fat- or heavy-tailed") data. The distribution is straightforward,…

We analyze systems of agents sharing light-tailed risky claims issued by different financial objects. Assuming exponentially distributed claims, we obtain that both agents' and system's losses follow generalized exponential mixture…

Assessing and managing risks in a changing climate requires projections that account for decision-relevant uncertainties. These deep uncertainties are often approximated by ensembles of Earth-system model runs that sample only a subset of…

We study networked control of non-linear systems where system states and tentative plant input sequences are transmitted over unreliable communication channels. The sequences are calculated recursively by using a pre-designed nominally…

Long-time tails, or algebraic decay of time-correlation functions, have long been known to exist both in many-body systems and in models of non-interacting particles in the presence of quenched disorder that are often referred to as Lorentz…

Empirical estimation of critical points at which complex systems abruptly flip from one state to another is among the remaining challenges in network science. However, due to the stochastic nature of critical transitions it is widely…

The transition to decarbonized energy systems has become a priority globally to mitigate carbon emissions and, therefore, climate change. However, the vulnerabilities of zero-carbon power grids under climatic and technological changes have…

Threats against power grids continue to increase, as extreme weather conditions and natural disasters (extreme events) become more frequent. Hence, there is a need for the simulation and modeling of power grids to reflect realistic…

Hurricanes have caused power outages and blackouts, affecting millions of customers and inducing severe social and economic impacts. The impacts of hurricane-caused blackouts may worsen due to increased heat extremes and possibly increased…

From biotechnology to cyber-risks, most extreme technological risks cannot be reliably estimated from historical statistics. Therefore, engineers resort to predictive methods, such as fault/event trees in the framework of probabilistic…

Understanding the shape of a distribution of data is of interest to people in a great variety of fields, as it may affect the types of algorithms used for that data. We study one such problem in the framework of distribution property…

Expansion planning problems refer to the monetary and unit investment needed for energy production or storage. An inherent element in these problems is the element of stochasticity in various aspects, such as the generation output of the…

Dynamic security analysis is an important problem of power systems on ensuring safe operation and stable power supply even when certain faults occur. No matter such faults are caused by vulnerabilities of system components, physical…

A key objective of the smart grid is to improve reliability of utility services to end users. This requires strengthening resilience of distribution networks that lie at the edge of the grid. However, distribution networks are exposed to…

Load shedding is the last and most expensive control action against system collapse and blackout. Achievement of an efficient emergency control to stabilize the power system following severe disturbances, requires two key objectives. First,…