相关论文: Blackouts, risk, and fat-tailed distributions

The possible paralelism existing between phase transitions and fracture in disordered materials, is discussed using the well-known Fiber Bundle Models and a probabilistic approach suited to smooth fluctuations near the critical point. Two…

Urban environments are intricate systems where the breakdown of critical infrastructure can impact both the economic and social well-being of communities. Electricity systems hold particular significance, as they are essential for other…

The frequency of disruptive and newly emerging threats (e.g. man-made attacks--cyber and physical attacks; extreme natural events--hurricanes, earthquakes, and floods) has escalated dramatically in the last decade. Impacts of these events…

To account quantitatively for many reported ``natural'' fat tail distributions in Nature and Economy, we propose the stretched exponential family as a complement to the often used power law distributions. It has many advantages, among which…

Electrical outages continue to occur despite technological innovations and improvements to electric power distribution infrastructure. In this paper, we describe a tool that was designed to acquire and collect data on electric power outages…

The increasing penetration of embedded renewables makes forecasting net-load, consumption less embedded generation, a significant and growing challenge. Here a framework for producing probabilistic forecasts of net-load is proposed with…

In order to mitigate cascading failure blackout risks in power systems, the critical components whose failures lead to high blackout risks should be identified. In this paper, such critical components are identified by the state-failure…

Extreme environmental events such as severe storms, drought, heat waves, flash floods, and abrupt species collapse have become more prevalent in the earth-atmosphere dynamic system in recent years. In order to fully understand the…

The North American power grid is one of the most complex technological networks, and its interconnectivity allows both for long-distance power transmission and for the propagation of disturbances. We model the power grid using its actual…

This paper proposes a new measure of tail risk spillover. The empirical application provides evidence of significant volatility and tail risk spillovers from the financial sector to many real economy sectors in the U.S. economy in the…

In recent years, probabilistic forecasts techniques were proposed in research as well as in applications to integrate volatile renewable energy resources into the electrical grid. These techniques allow decision makers to take the…

Most theoretical analysis for lifetime distribution explains origins of specific distribution based on independent failure. We develop a unified framework encompassing different lifetime distribution for failure-coupled network systems. We…

Electricity systems are experiencing increased effects of randomness and variability due to emerging stochastic assets. The increased effects introduce new uncertainties into power systems that can impact system operability and reliability.…

Geological fault systems, as the San Andreas fault (SAF) in USA, constitute typical examples of self-organizing systems in nature. In this paper, we have considered some geophysical properties of the SAF system to test the viability of the…

Cascading failures are one of the main reasons for blackouts in power transmission grids. The topology of a power grid, together with its operative state determine, for the most part, the robustness of the power grid against cascading…

We propose a model to create synthetic networks that may also serve as a narrative of a certain kind of infrastructure network evolution. It consists of an initialization phase with the network extending tree-like for minimum cost and a…

We propose a random walk model of asset returns where the parameters depend on market stress. Stress is measured by, e.g., the value of an implied volatility index. We show that model parameters including standard deviations and…

The reliability of energy systems is strongly influenced by the prevailing climate conditions. With the increasing prevalence of renewable energy sources, the interdependence between energy and climate systems has become even stronger. This…

In complex systems, external parameters often determine the phase in which the system operates, i.e., its macroscopic behavior. For nearly a century, statistical physics has extensively studied systems' transitions across phases,…

The control problem of a linear discrete-time dynamical system over a multi-hop network is explored. The network is assumed to be subject to packet drops by malicious and nonmalicious nodes as well as random and malicious data corruption…